Lessons from 5,000 years of civilizational collapse: Societies built on excessive concentration of wealth and power carry within them their own premises of collapse
A new book argues that societies built on excessive concentration of wealth and power carry within them their own premises for collapse.
In medieval Europe, prophecies of an imminent collapse circulated heavily. Population growth, the emergence of early industries, increasing inequality, and repeated natural disasters fueled a climate of deep anxiety. Historian Norman Cohn notes that in such an atmosphere arose what he calls “messianic movements of the poor”—groups who saw in the collapse of the social order a chance to overthrow the elite and gain power.
Today, analysts write, some of the conditions that led medieval people to predict the end of the world—extreme inequality, pandemics, rapid technological transformations—are present again. Philosopher Toby Ord estimates a one-in-six chance that humanity will disappear this century, while author Jared Diamond calls a global collapse by 2050 “plausible.” At the same time, the political climate in the U.S. is home to apocalyptic ideas that advocate either dismantling the federal bureaucracy or restoring a conservative Christian social model. British writer Dorian Lynskey notes that “apocalyptic anxiety” seems to have become constant, writes The Atlantic.
An extensive study of past collapses
In this atmosphere, Luke Kemp – researcher at the University of Cambridge Center for the Study of Existential Risk – proposes a different approach. In Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse, he does not dispute the possibility of a collapse, but shows that such episodes have occurred repeatedly over the past five millennia. Taken together, Kemp argues, they offer important lessons.
“Crises can be beneficial,” he argues, because the destruction of the existing order sometimes paves the way for reconstruction. Kemp notes that devastation can hit elites harder, while survivors of collapse periods can gain greater bargaining power. He points to the era after the collapse of the Bronze Age civilizations or the post–Black Plague period, when the resources available per capita would have increased.
However, the evidence is mixed. Some research shows an increase in population height after the Bronze Age, but explanations may vary. And the interpretation of the economic effects of the Black Death remains controversial: there are studies that show an increase in wages, but also analyzes that speak of the consolidation of economic power in the hands of large commercial entities.
Recurring patterns in crash history
Kemp's book covers a variety of cases – from the city of Cahokia, in today's central US, to urban centers such as Monte Albán or Jenne-Jeno in West Africa. In most of these examples, he says, the collapse was associated with the accumulation of power, internal conflicts, ecological pressures and the over-extension of empires.
To describe the mechanism by which societies self-destruct, Kemp uses the metaphor of the “Goliath”—a set of hierarchical structures in which wealth and authority are concentrated in a narrow core. In Jenne-Jeno, he argues, the emergence of an elite confined within the city walls and the installation of a ruler with extensive powers hastened the decline. Kemp believes that this “Goliath” was behind the collapse of most civilizations and that it now threatens to undermine modern social systems.
Some of his arguments are close to those made by David Graeber and David Wengrow in The Dawn of Everything, a work that has provoked intense debate about the origins of inequality and the interpretation of the archaeological data.
Parallels between past and present
Kemp often draws bold connections between ancient collapses and modern crises, including the collapse of Mediterranean civilizations in 1100 BCE and the financial crisis of 2008. Indeed, some studies suggest that recessions can have complex effects on population health, but the toll remains evidently negative for many vulnerable groups. Kemp points out, however, that postwar economic and social reforms have produced, in some countries, more democratic and inclusive regimes.
Looking at the present, he warns that the accumulation of technological, financial and cultural influence in the hands of actors such as Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos recalls eras marked by strong imbalances – from the era of the great American monopolies to the interwar period.
A call to action
Goliath's Curse is essentially a call to turn anxiety about the future into a constructive civic project. Kemp warns of the emergence of a “Silicon Goliath”, composed of surveillance technologies, data centers and artificial intelligence models controlled by private entities. He supports the development of collaborative AI models, the elimination of commercial incentives that can amplify the risks, and the refusal to work to support institutions he considers “agents of destruction,” such as AGI labs, fossil fuel corporations, or the arms industry.
Every act of civic resistance, Kemp writes, can be “a stone thrown in the direction of Goliath.”
A warning and, at the same time, an invitation to reflection
Although Kemp's analysis is ambitious and sometimes questionable in detail, the book remains an accessible exploration of how civilizations collapse—and why such an outcome is not inevitable. At a time marked by political tension, economic turmoil and global anxiety, his approach invites readers to imagine what a more resilient and equitable society might look like.
