Inflation is on target, industry is above the mark, and sales are growing even though wages are stagnant
The end of the year is fast approaching. However, before we say goodbye to 2025, it is time to say goodbye to November, the last week of which was full of interesting events and data coming from financial markets and the economy. What? Inflation is finally within the NBP's target, Polish industry is finally gaining momentum, and in turn wages are slowing down a bit, although it is not bad anyway, because after the minimum increase in Great Britain, it turns out that our situation is quite similar. What else? We invite you to a summary of the week in the charts.
November brought a further slowdown in CPI inflation. According to the “flash estimate” of the Central Statistical Office, for the first time since last spring it was within the 2.5% target of the National Bank of Poland. Let's hope it's permanent this time.
The latest data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on the sold production of Polish industry in October 2025 brought a positive surprise for the market. Although the growth dynamics slowed down compared to the very strong September, both the annual and monthly indicators turned out to be much better than analysts' forecasts.
The increase in average wages in the corporate sector in October was the lowest by almost 5 years. As usual, the Central Statistical Office showed in which sectors employees received the highest and lowest average salary. Hotel and restaurant employees were the worst paid. Employees from the information and communication department are at the top, followed by foresters and miners.
If after September we wrote that “the Polish consumer went shopping”, in October we could write that he had not returned yet. Retail sales statistics were much better than economists' estimates.
Most global investment fund managers surveyed by Bank of America believe that the gold price will remain above $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2026. In recent days, analysts of large banks have raised the average forecast prices of the precious metal. Experts noted that the high exchange rate did not discourage institutional buyers.
Companies with Ukrainian origins listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange continue the increases seen last week due to another chance to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Monday's session brought increased investor activity following the weekend's reports that the draft peace plan improved during the talks in Geneva is consistent with Ukraine's national interests.
This year's autumn is marked by lively traffic on the construction sites of apartments and houses. The data from the Central Statistical Office for October are no different. There has been an increase in new constructions, building permits and apartments put into use.
The UK government has decided to give another generous increase to the official minimum wage. All this is happening in a country with the highest inflation among the world's largest economies and one of the highest wages in Europe.
In October 2025, a new monthly record was broken in the number of announcements of personal bankruptcy. The ranks of bankrupts increased by almost 2.2 thousand. people. A decade ago, this result was achieved for the entire calendar year.
The history of the Energa Group on the Warsaw Stock Exchange may soon come to an end. Unfortunately, this may be the end in the atmosphere of another scandal. The Orlen Group announced an invitation to sell the remaining shares of the energy company, which were traded at a higher price than the one offered on the stock exchange, but before it did so, someone bought the shares in large quantities in large orders. The case is being looked at by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority.
The average mortgage loan amount is over PLN 450,000. zloty. The mortgage loan market is accelerating, and the value of new contracts has increased by over 50% year on year. The latest AMRON-SARFiN report contains a clear announcement – this year will be record-breaking.
1/4 of Poles already receive pensions, which cost taxpayers PLN 413.2 billion last year. ZUS beneficiaries do not complain much. But retired uniformed personnel are doing much better.
The end of November brought slight reductions in petrol and autogas prices, while the increase in the average retail price of diesel oil was only minimal. A clear drop in wholesale rates gives hope that we will also see lower prices at gas stations in December.
