publication
2025-11-28 10:00
November brought a further slowdown in CPI inflation. According to the “flash estimate” of the Central Statistical Office, for the first time since last spring it was within the 2.5% target of the National Bank of Poland. Let's hope it's permanent this time.
In November 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was about 2.4% higher compared to the same month last year – according to a quick estimate of the Central Statistical Office. This is quite a positive surpriseas economists expected a reading of 2.6%.
This is the lowest CPI inflation reading since April 2024. At the same time, it is clearly lower than in the previous few months. In October, consumer inflation amounted to 2.8%, and in September and August 2.8%. So we have the fifth month in a row with CPI inflation just below 3% per year. For the first time in a year and a half, the 2.5% target of the National Bank of Poland has been achieved and for the fifth month in a row, CPI inflation is within the permissible (+/- 1 percentage point) deviation from the target.
It is worth bearing in mind that: decreasing CPI inflation does not mean that prices are falling. None of these things! They are still growing, but at a slower pace than in previous months. It is worth paying attention to the fact that recently the monthly increase in the CPI index has been relatively low.
In November The Gusov basket of consumer goods cost only 0.1% more than in October.
A month earlier, it also increased by 0.1% m/m, and during the previous two months it remained unchanged (i.e. the monthly dynamics amounted to 0.0% m/m). As a result, CPI inflation realized over the previous 7 months (i.e. including November) was only 0.4%. This state of affairs was largely influenced by cheaper fuels, which, however, have started to become more expensive in recent weeks.
It is also worth remembering that for only 4 of the previous 72 months saw CPI inflation within this target. As a result, the NBP inflation target was permanently exceeded, both in the medium and long term. The average (geometric) CPI inflation for the last 5 years was 7.47%, for 10 years it was 4.53%, and for 20 years it was 3.35%.
The average annual CPI inflation for 2024 was 3.6% according to the Central Statistical Office. It was still too much, but also clearly less than in previous years. The result for 2023 is 11.4%, in 2022 the average annual inflation was 14.4%, and in 2021 5.1%.
This was a “quick estimate” of November inflation, so we do not have complete data broken down into individual categories and specific goods. This information will be shown in a report that will be published in mid-November.
However, we know that in October the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 2.7% year on year, which is a much slower dynamics than in the previous months. Energy carriers also cost us 2.7% more than a year ago. Fuel for private means of transport turned out to be cheaper than a year ago (but only by 1.9% year on year), which, however, was also 2.2% more expensive than in October.
