Europe is now doing what seemed unthinkable a few years ago: planning how to respond to Russia's hybrid war
Europe begins to think about the unnatural of yesterday: how to fight back against Russia. Western states are discussing, more and more openly, coordinated offensive cyber operations and surprise military exercises, against the background of the intensification of Moscow's campaign to destabilize NATO allies, writes politico.eu.
Remains of the Russian drone found in Vaslui/PHOTO: Facebook
The attacks are becoming harder to ignore: Russian drones crossing the airspace of Poland and Romania, mysterious devices jamming airports and military bases, GPS jamming, air and naval incursions, and even sabotage on a strategic rail line to Ukraine.
“Russia is constantly testing the limits. It wants to see what response it gets and how far it can go”warns the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia, Baiba Braže. “It's not the words that send the signal, it's the actions.”
Behind the scenes, diplomats are discussing scenarios that until recently seemed out of the realm of fiction: coordinated cyber attacks on Russian infrastructure, quick and public attribution of hybrid aggression, or military exercises organized without warning near the alliance's eastern border.
The scale of the attacks is unprecedented
In the first seven months of the year, the Globsec think tank counted more than 110 acts of sabotage and attempted attacks on European territory — mostly in Poland and France — committed by people with ties to Moscow.
And the Kremlin does not hide that it is closely watching the militarization of Europe. At the Valdai forum, Vladimir Putin spoke about the “creative space” of contemporary foreign policy, leaving the question: is it just rhetoric or is there an answer coming?
For Europe, the equation is complicated: how do you respond to a nuclear power without escalating to the point of no return? How do you discourage without provoking?
“We cannot afford to be afraid. We must be firm”says Sweden's Chief of Defense, General Michael Claesson.
The tone changes
After sabotaging a vital rail line, Poland sent 10,000 troops to protect critical infrastructure. Prime Minister Donald Tusk went further: he accused Russia of “state terrorism”.
Italy also reacted. Defense Minister Guido Crosetto criticized “European inertia” and presented a 125-page plan to counter hybrid aggression. It proposes a European Center for Combating Hybrid Warfare, a cyber force of 1,500 specialists and military units trained in artificial intelligence.
“Russia escalates hybrid war against EU citizens”, warns the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Radosław Sikorski.
The Essential Dilemma: Can Democracy Use the Weapons of Authoritarianism?
European states are constrained by their own rules. Unlike Moscow, Brussels cannot resort to deliberate ambiguities. Information warfare expert Professor Kevin Limonier bluntly asks: Can states of law use the same tools as an authoritarian regime?
Some countries have already begun to amend the legal framework, allowing drones to be shot down over sensitive areas. Others — such as Denmark or the Czech Republic — have raised barriers to offensive cyber operations. Britain used similar methods against ISIS in 2017.
For Baiba Braže, the direction is clear: cyber offensive, inter-service coordination, increased responsiveness.
Experts see possible targets: strategic industrial zones inside Russia — such as the Alabuga park, where Shahed drones are produced — or energy infrastructure. “We can affect the system, disrupting its operation,” says analyst Filip Bryjka.
Information warfare: a closed frontier
Europe must also be able to counter Russian propaganda inside the Federation. But the Russian public is “almost inaccessible”, admits a senior military official. That is why Western states seek closer cooperation with countries that understand the Russian mentality and mechanisms of influence.
However, any action must remain “deniable”, emphasizes a European diplomat.
NATO: defense, not offense
The alliance avoids operations that could be interpreted as aggressive. “Asymmetric responses are part of the discussion, but we will not stoop to Russia's tactics,” says a NATO diplomat.
Instead, the emphasis falls on demonstrations of strength and unity: the rapid assignment of hybrid attacks, announced military exercises on the last hundred meters in the Baltic states, the flexible mobilization of resources.
Hybrid threat centers, such as the one in Helsinki, are working on policies and training programs to strengthen collective defense.
“There is still a lot to do”admits an alliance diplomat. “We need to show, by all available means, that we are paying attention and that we can quickly move resources to where they are needed.”
