However, the first information after the conclusion of the talks between the Ukrainian and American delegations in Geneva is promising. The topic was Russia's 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine. “I want to confirm that the first session with the esteemed American delegation was very fruitful. We have made significant progress and are heading towards a just and lasting peace,” said Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian president's office. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the talks as “the most productive and significant” of all held so far.
However, the situation is very dynamic. There was optimism on Sunday, although the mood in Ukraine and its Western allies had been gloomy over the last several dozen hours. The 28-point peace plan developed by the US and Russia over the heads of the authorities in Kiev and other European capitals shocked the entire West.
Trump demands, among other things, that Ukraine give up territories that have not yet been captured by the Russians. If President Volodymyr Zelensky signs the document, it will effectively mean Ukraine's capitulation. However, if he does not do this, the US president threatened to withhold military aid to Kiev. Experts interviewed by Blick's journalists say what the consequences would be. Three scenarios seem likely.
Marcel Berni, a strategy expert at the ETH Military Academy in Zurich, says that at best Europe could fill part of the gap left by the American withdrawal. The front would remain stable, Ukraine could delay Russian advances and increase its own weapons production. Today, according to its own data, Kyiv produces almost 60 percent. his weapon. For comparison, at the beginning of the Russian war of aggression in 2022 it was less than 10%.
Further Ukrainian attacks deep into the territory – for example against oil refineries or weapons factories – could lead to a change in Moscow's attitude
says Bernie.
Klemens Fischer, professor of geopolitics at the University of Cologne, also sees this “best-case scenario”. “In this scenario, the conflict comes to a temporary standstill,” he says.
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Massive European military support could further deter the Russians. — Cold War 2.0 begins, both sides accept the new balance, says Fischer. However, even in the best-case scenario, both experts do not expect the war to end quickly.
Scenario No. 2. The war lasts forever
In the second scenario, Ukraine and its European partners – even without American help – manage to prevent the Russians from achieving their war goals [włączenie całego Donbasu oraz regionów Zaporoża, Chersoniu i Krymu do Federacji Rosyjskiej; obalenie rządu Wołodymyra Zełenskiego]. But the military effort is not enough to sufficiently deter Moscow.
Europe is making progress in rhetoric. France wants to deliver 100 Rafale fighters to Ukraine, the German government is threatening to raise a finger, Poland is threatening to shoot down Russian fighters, and the EU has allocated EUR 150 billion [ponad 635 mld zł, po obecnym kursie] for joint purchases of weapons, most of which will go to Ukraine.
However, this will not be enough to truly intimidate Vladimir Putin. He continues to send his troops to attack. Ukraine continues to do everything in its power to resist on the battlefield. The war lasts forever.
Scenario No. 3. Sad Christmas
In the worst-case scenario, an American withdrawal would mean a loss for Ukraine the beginning of a deadly spiral. A huge shortage of ammunition, the loss of a significant part of air defense, a growing number of civilian casualties, and Russia's increasing territorial gains. Ukraine's fight for survival would turn into a last attempt to resist inevitable destruction. Juruj Romanienko, a Ukrainian political scientist, calculates that in such a case Ukraine would be able to maintain resistance for a maximum of four months due to the small number of staff.
The biggest blow would be the loss of intelligence and access to US situational pictures. It would be like taping the eye of a trainer in a boxing fight who is already weakened. The fighter can still fight, but he sees his opponent's punches much later and may land less accurate punches himself
– says Marcel Berni.
Professor of geopolitics Klemens Fischer is afraid of the “relatively unlimited progress” of Russian troops in such a case. Depending on whether Russia attacks along the entire front line or concentrates on two or three main points, Ukrainian defense will quickly reach its breaking point. — In the worst-case scenario, an operational breakthrough could occur before Christmas, Fischer warns. Specifically, this means that Russian troops will enter the country – in an extreme case, again as far as Kiev.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
