INTERVIEW. “Russia has violated agreements far more detailed than this peace plan, and it practically invites Moscow to launch a new wave of aggression after a brief pause.” Quick reaction from Kyiv for the public in Romania

President Trump's proposed peace plan is causing backlash. There is also a clause in the plan that says Ukraine will lose security guarantees if it launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg. But what if the Russians stage a missile attack? “Let's not remember the episode of the downing of the MH-17 plane: the Russians shot down the plane in July 2014. Only two years later, the investigation team published the first results, and the Netherlands and Australia officially accused Russia in 2018,” said Sergey Solodki, director of the New Europe Center, a Kiev think tank, in an interview for the HotNews audience.

The new peace plan drawn up by the US in consultation with Russia has sparked discontent and rejection in Kiev, judging by the reaction of politicians and the media, even as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has preferred cautious language and shown his willingness to negotiate on the basis of the proposals.

Solodki: “Overall, the document is extremely crude and vague”

“The plan contains several provisions that contradict Ukraine's fundamental negotiating principles. In particular, it provides for the withdrawal of the Ukrainian armed forces from the Donetsk region and Ukraine's renunciation of the aspiration to join NATO,” observes, in the discussion with HotNews, Sergey Solodki, director of the New Europe Center.

According to the draft peace plan, cited by Axios, AFP and the Financial Times, Ukraine would be forced to withdraw from the entire Donbas region, including fortress cities that Russia does not currently control and which are a crucial defensive line for Kiev.

Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk would be recognized as “de facto Russian” in the yet to be officially confirmed document, while Kherson and Zaporozhye regions would remain frozen along the current contact line.

“Overall, the document is extremely crude and vague. Russia has violated much more detailed agreements in the past, and this basically invites Moscow to launch a new wave of aggression after a short pause,” Solodki pointed out.

“I cannot imagine that Ukraine would accept such a plan in its current form. Ukrainian society simply would not allow the government to accept such disadvantageous conditions,” he warned.

“The majority of Ukrainians oppose any concessions to Russia, especially those involving the weakening of Ukraine's armed forces or the ceding of territories. The public position is also absolutely clear: any negotiations with Russia must include firm security guarantees for Ukraine. Without such guarantees, Russia will launch a new round of aggression as soon as it recovers its forces,” the director of the New Europe Center added.

“Ukrainians want a solution that prevents Russia from resuming its offensive”

Trump's proposed peace plan includes “reliable security guarantees” for Ukraine in the event of further Russian aggression.

However, it is unclear how credible these are, and for some, they do not seem to be enough.

“Ukraine's position is quite clear: Ukrainians want a solution that will prevent Russia from resuming its offensive. Security guarantees must be concrete, binding and effective,” Solodki said in the discussion with HotNews.

Fears that the Russians may stage a missile attack

“However,” he noted, “the current plan includes a clause describing situations where these safeguards would not apply.”

“For example, if a missile was launched at Russian cities. How difficult would it be for Russia to stage such a provocation? How long would it take for the US and other allies to determine that Russia launched missiles at itself to block the activation of security safeguards for Ukraine?” the analyst asked.

He recalled the episode of the downing of the MH-17 plane: “The Russians shot down the plane in July 2014. Only two years later, the investigation team published the first results, and the Netherlands and Australia officially accused Russia in 2018.”

Solodki warned that, “the authors of the peace plan did not seriously consider the long-term consequences or the realities of any future settlement.”

“The US goal seems to be to create the impression of a quickly restored peace. But no one in Washington seems to be asking what will happen next,” he said.

The analyst also drew attention to a provision of the plan.

“Particularly worrisome is the idea that compliance with the agreement would be monitored by a Peace Council chaired by Donald Trump. What will happen after Trump?” Solodki asked.

“We need serious monitoring, verification procedures, not those based on a personal approach. We have already seen how effectively Trump managed to “make peace in 24 hours”. If the new agreement will be guaranteed with similar efficiency, we should be very cautious in trusting it,” the analyst noted, referring to the US president's promises.

“Translated from Zelensky's diplomatic language, the message is clear: Ukraine cannot accept the plan in its current form”

On Friday, Oleksandr Merejko, head of the Ukrainian parliament's foreign affairs committee, was very vocal in his criticism, telling the Kyiv Independent that the US proposals were “absolutely nonsensical.”

President Zelenskiy, however, was much more cautious in his statements, assuring that he would talk openly with Trump and European partners based on the proposals.

For Solodki, the position of the President of Ukraine is clear.

“The United States is an important and indispensable strategic partner for Ukraine. We have already seen that President Zelensky chose a diplomatic and restrained tone in his public statements. But translated from diplomatic language, the message is obvious: Ukraine cannot accept the plan in its current form,” the analyst explained.

“The document carefully takes into account Russia's interests while ignoring Ukraine's interests. If the US is really interested in a lasting and just peace (and preventing the rekindling of war), it should listen to politicians and diplomats who have been negotiating with Russia for years and understand all the pitfalls that Moscow puts in the documents,” added Solodki.

He also said, “it is extremely important that the European leaders who spoke with Donald Trump immediately after the Anchorage summit participate in these discussions.”

On Friday afternoon, Volodymyr Zelensky returned with a message to the nation in which he said “Ukraine is faced with a difficult decision, loss of dignity or loss of a key partner.”

“Yes, Ukraine is in a vulnerable position”

The new peace plan proposed for Ukraine comes at a complicated time, when Russia is advancing, albeit slowly and with heavy losses, on the eastern front. At the same time, President Zelenski's administration is facing a huge corruption scandal that has reverberated internationally.

Solodki stressed that “Ukraine is ready to cease fire as early as tomorrow along the current front line.”

“This would make sense,” he said, only “Russia refuses and imposes conditions that Ukraine simply cannot accept.”

“Is Ukraine ready to reject the proposals? The fact that Ukraine intends to 'discuss' them is actually a signal of readiness to reject them,” noted the director of the Ukrainian think-tank.

He admitted at the same time the complicated situation of Ukraine.

“Yes, Ukraine is in a vulnerable position. Russia feels this, and therefore maximum diplomatic and political pressure is exerted. Moscow is once again testing not only Ukraine, but all of Europe – its ability to quickly engage in negotiations and convince Trump not to play by Putin's rules,” Solodki said.