2025-11-20 10:20
publication
2025-11-20 10:20
There is a fight for the strengthening of the Polish zloty on the Polish currency market. The euro rate has attacked the support line at PLN 4.2250 three times this week. So far, no luck every time.
On Thursday at 10:24 the euro was worth PLN 4.2305. But in the morning – still on a not very liquid market – the EUR/PLN exchange rate dropped to PLN 4.2256, testing the lower limit of this year's sideways trend for the third time this week.
The previous attack on the PLN 4.2250 line took place on Wednesday afternoon, when news agencies reported Donald Trump's statement about his plans to “end the war” in Ukraine. However, it seems that the American-Russian proposal is unacceptable to the Ukrainian side, but it implements most of the Kremlin's demands. Therefore, it is unlikely to be a catalyst for a permanent strengthening of the zloty.
The euro rate was even closer to breaking on Monday morning, when the quotations of the community currency reached close to PLN 4.22. Later, however, there was a reverse, which, for now, ended the scenario of a decline in the EUR/PLN exchange rate to this year's lows.
Later in the week, the zloty market may be susceptible to data from the United States. At 2:30 p.m., the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its “overdue” labor market report for October. This is important because the results for November will be known only next year (i.e. along with the “payrolls” for December), because the BLS failed to collect data due to the shutdown and suspension of the functioning of federal authorities.
– Our expectations for the current week assumed the strengthening of the zloty in its second part towards 4.22 for EUR/PLN and around 3.61-3.63 for USD/PLN, and this is still the base scenario for us – wrote PKO BP analysts in the morning report.
Meanwhile, the dollar is strengthening again against the euro, which usually does not help emerging market currencies such as the Polish zloty. On Thursday morning, the EUR/USD rate was close to USD 1.15, which resulted in an increase in the dollar rate to PLN 3.6744 on the domestic market. In this way, the USD/PLN exchange rate is approaching the local peaks from early November (PLN 3.7143).
However, the Swiss franc weakened significantly and was valued at PLN 4.5580 in the morning. And just 48 hours ago, the franc to zloty exchange rate was testing the line of PLN 4.60, which marks the upper limit of the sideways trend that has been ongoing since April. The situation when the euro-zloty pair hits multi-month lows and the CHF/PN exchange rate tries to break through is highly unusual and results from the strength of the Helvetic currency in relation to the euro. A week ago, the EUR/CHF exchange rate reached a historic low, which meant the franc was nominally record strong against the euro.
The pound sterling is still trading close to 6-year lows. In the morning, the British currency cost PLN 4.8000 after the day before it was quoted as high as PLN 4.7558 – the lowest since September 2019. This is a result of investors' nervousness before the publication of the UK budget scheduled for November 26. The United Kingdom's creditors are demanding spending cuts and tax increases to reduce the budget gap and slow down the growth of public debt.
K.K
