Romania's economic growth will be half of the EU average this year / What are the latest forecasts of the European Commission
Autumn economic forecasts published on Monday by the European Commission show slower growth in Romania's GDP. The European Commission reduced to 0.7%, from 1.4%, in the spring, the estimates regarding the growth of the Romanian economy this year. Economic growth of 1.1% is forecast for next year, and 2.1% for 2027. This year's growth is below the EU average. The Commission expects growth of 1.4% across the EU this year and next, and 1.5% in 2027.
“Romania's GDP growth would remain low, at 0.7% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, because the necessary fiscal consolidation affects private and public consumption, which, in turn, is affected by the increase in inflation,” states a Commission document, quoted by Agerpres. Last year, GDP growth was 0.9%.
“However, the economy continues to grow thanks to a gradual recovery of private investments, the acceleration of spending with European funds and the significant improvement of net exports. In 2027, Romania's GDP growth should accelerate above 2%, following the easing of fiscal consolidation,” states the European Commission.
Uncertainties affect consumption
According to her, the labor market would moderate. The government deficit of 9.3% of GDP in 2024 is expected to decrease to 8.4% of GDP in 2025 and 6.2% of GDP in 2026, following the adoption of fiscal adjustment packages.
EC forecasts show that this year political and fiscal uncertainties affect private consumption in the first half of the year, while the adoption of fiscal consolidation packages will further reduce disposable income and public consumption is expected to decline.
A moderate recovery in gross fixed capital formation, as well as resilient exports, should support the economy.
Unemployment on the rise
In 2025, the employment rate is expected to decline, following the reduction in economic activity, leading to a gradual increase in the unemployment rate.
“However, the inflow of foreign workers continues, indicating robust labor market demand in some sectors such as construction and services. In 2025, the unemployment rate is expected to slightly exceed 6%, then gradually decline to 5.6% in 2026 and 2027. Public sector wage freezes and private sector wage moderation in 2025 and 2026 will significantly slow growth. nominal wages. After the high increases, the moderation of wage growth will probably support external competitiveness', the European Commission estimates.
After inflation fell to 5.8% in 2024, price growth accelerated in the third quarter of 2025. The removal of the electricity price cap in July led to the increase
inflation to 8.6% in September. Inflation is expected to rise to 6.7% in 2025, before falling below 6% in 2026. The removal of the cap on natural gas prices in March 2026 is likely to slow the disinflationary process.
After reaching the high level of 9.3% of GDP in 2024, following rapid growth in spending, Romania's general government deficit is expected to decrease to 5.9% of GDP in 2027.
Defense spending would rise gradually, from 1.6% of GDP in 2024 to 2% of GDP in 2027. Also, government debt would rise from below 55% of GDP in 2024 to around 63% of GDP in 2027, following high primary government deficits and the projected increase in interest payments, the European Commission also states.
