Russian forces are dangerously close to closing the Ukrainian pocket. All that remains is a corridor only a dozen or so kilometers wide to supply forces in Pokrovsk and nearby Myrnohrad, reports the Ukrainian analytical group DeepState.
This is a crucial situation for the Ukrainians. President Volodymyr Zelensky at the end of October this year. declared that Russian forces in this sector were outnumbered by eight to one. On November 12, even the 7th Corps of the Ukrainian Airborne Forces admitted that the recent major Russian attack with armored vehicles was “partially successful.”
After capturing the rest of Pokrovsk, Russian forces will probably move towards the northern city of Dobropole, says Pasi Paroinen, an analyst at the Finnish organization Black Bird Group. According to him Russia may try to break through and reach the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards the city of Mezhovo, but the main target will probably remain the Donetsk Oblast.
The fall of Pokrovsk, a key rail and road junction, would give Russia a significant logistical advantage in future offensives, especially thanks to the M30 highway that connects cities in the west.
Paroinen believes that Russia will also step up attacks on Konstantynówka, a transport hub about 50 km to the northeast that is already surrounded on three sides.
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In turn, Austrian military expert Tom Cooper believes that Russia may try to cut off Kramatorskthe regional administrative center, advancing from Pokrovsk towards Pavlograd while exerting pressure from the north towards Izium.
Following Pokrovsky Ukraine appears to have prepared a “very complex network” of anti-tank ditches and obstacles known as “dragon teeth”as Paroinen reports based on satellite photos. Although the main defensive fortifications have been built, they have proven to be a weak point for the Ukrainian army in the past. This became obvious after the fall of Avdiivka in 2024, as Russian forces continued their rapid advance.
The condition of the Ukrainian units after the exhausting battle will determine the pace of future fighting. Paroinen explains that the units defending Pokrovsk will be “very exhausted and very scattered” because defending the pocket requires larger forces than the front line. It is unclear whether the Ukrainian army will be able to send fresh reserves. Retired colonel Serhiy Hrabsky says that they are what the army misses the most.
Much will depend on the condition of Ukrainian forces after the possible fall of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. I think the key question is: was it worth keeping these cities, which are now very difficult to defend?
– points out Paroinen.
If defense becomes too costly, the battle could turn into a war of attrition to Russia's advantage. However, Paroinen estimates that the fall of the city would probably have no significant impact on the rest of the frontbecause Ukraine has already moved its logistics center deeper into the country.
Fights within the city
According to Ukrainian military analyst Oleksiy Hetman Russia is trying to introduce as many sabotage groups as possible into Pokrovsk itselfto attack from the inside. The Ukrainian 7th Corps reported on November 11 that there were over 300 Russian soldiers within the city.
However, Hetman warns that Russia's capabilities should not be overestimated, emphasizing that Moscow has engaged a quarter of its armed forces in the battle, which has been going on for over a year.
Cooper, however, is more pessimistic. He thinks that the capture of Pokrovsk, a key railway junction, would be of great importance to the Russian armywhich relies largely on railways.
Pokrovsk will probably be a very important place or something like a center from which they intend to continue their march. So now the question remains whether they will move west or north
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
