Poland dependent on allies. We won't be able to hit the Kremlin without their missiles

Poland is dependent on countries participating in the ELSA program for access to and production of cutting-edge weapons with a range of up to 3,000. km – we read in the published report of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London.

The document analyzes and describes the possibilities of using long-range precision strike systems (Deep Precision Strike, DPS) by Poland, Germany, France and Great Britain, based on statements by government and military representatives. These four countries, together with Italy and Sweden, form the international ELSA (European Long Strike Approach) program, i.e. a European land-based weapon with a range of over 1,000 km. This initiative was launched during the NATO summit in Washington in 2024.

Analysts from the London think tank pointed out that all partners in the ELSA program have some experience, except Poland, in implementing and developing long-range missile systems for conventional or nuclear purposes. They particularly emphasized the experience of Great Britain and France, which have a “national nuclear deterrent.” Additionally, Paris has a “mature ballistic missile industry.”

In the report, they recalled that “DPS is currently considered a European military capability gap, characterized by an over-reliance on air defense capabilities and an almost complete lack of land-launched weapons with the desired (long-range) range.”

Poland seeks to develop long-range land attack capabilities

Experts noted that Poland is seeking to develop long-range land attack capabilities, given its proximity to Russia and the deteriorating relations between NATO and Moscow.

They recalled that in 2013, then Prime Minister Donald Tusk presented the concept of “Polish fangs”, i.e. investments in a modern military system. “Poland has since developed these capabilities, mainly in the air and on land, through the purchase of ALCM systems (PAP missiles) and the Homar artillery modernization program. The latter, however, probably falls below the minimum range of NATO's DPS ambitions,” said the report's authors.

According to the analysis, Poland purchased, among others: in 2014, 40 American JASSM cruise missiles with a range of over 370 km, which can be used by F-16 fighters, and in 2016, another 70 missiles with an extended range of over 930 km. It was recalled that in May 2024, Poland signed an agreement to purchase “several hundred” additional JASSM missiles, the deliveries of which are expected between 2026 and 2030.

The IISS stated that the Polish Homar program assumed that the Polish arms industry would design and produce the missile launchers, but the government abandoned this plan in 2018. Instead, the HIMARS rocket artillery system was purchased from the United States. The contract for the purchase of 20 launchers, including two training ones, was signed in 2019, and the first delivery was made in 2023. PThe Polish version of HIMARS, called Homar-A, includes the MGM-168 tactical missile system (ATACMS), the estimated range of which is 300 km.

“In 2023, Poland concluded a framework agreement with Lockheed Martin for the assembly of HIMARS components on Polish Jelcz 6×6 trucks and for another 486 Homar-A launchers, which were to be assembled in Poland and delivered from 2026, but the agreement has not been signed yet by October 2025,” the report reads.

Korean rocket launchers are no better

The document also mentions the second part of the Homar program, called Homar-K, i.e. the acquisition of 218 K239 Chunmoo launchers from South Korea, the delivery of which began in 2023. In April 2024, Poland ordered another 72 launchers. This order also included the CTM-290 SRBM ballistic missile, which has a declared range of 290 km. Moreover, in April 2025, the South Korean company Hanwha Aerospace and the Polish concern Grupa WB agreed to establish a joint venture to produce CGR-080 guided missiles for Homar-K. As noted, however, the deal does not cover the longer-range CTM-290 for now.

In the opinion of the IISS, both the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East have shown that the deterrence strategy alone is insufficient, because even the most advanced air and anti-missile defense systems are unable to provide full protection against long-range weapons. As emphasized, “this requires achieving the ability to retaliate.” “Considering the fact that the main German population centers are within the range of Russian missiles, this involves the possibility of hitting targets (…) located in the center of Russia, including Moscow, located approximately 1,600 km from the German-Polish border,” the report wrote.

From London Marta Zabłocka (PAP)

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