Russia's backup solution to mitigate impact of Ukrainian drone attacks that hit at least 17 major refineries

Oil processing in Russia fell just 3 percent this year despite Ukraine's worst drone attacks to date, as refiners avoided a sharp drop in fuel production by using spare capacity to offset damage from the attacks, sources and data cited by Reuters news agency showed on Thursday.

Kiev has stepped up its drone strikes deep into Russian territory, aiming to destroy oil refineries, warehouses and pipelines and cripple Moscow's biggest source of funding for the war in Ukraine.

Most of the attacks took place in early 2025, then resumed from August. Ukrainian drones have hit at least 17 major refineries in total, forcing Russia, the world's second-largest crude oil exporter, to cut fuel exports and order additional drone defense systems.

At the height of the second wave of strikes, between August and October, the attacks and planned maintenance knocked out 20 percent of Russia's refining capacity, according to Reuters calculations based on information from three Russian industry sources.

But that only led to a 6 percent drop in Russia's total refining volume to about 5.1 million barrels per day – a reduction of about 300,000 barrels per day from the same period last year – the sources and data consulted also showed.

More broadly, from January to October, oil processing fell to about 220 million metric tons (5.2 million barrels per day), down 3 percent from last year.

The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue. Russia no longer publishes oil refining data. Russia's Energy Ministry declined to comment.

No details were available on the split between planned and unplanned maintenance.

Moscow exploits spare capacity, Kiev praises the success of its attacks

The three industry sources told Reuters that Russian refineries were operating well below their maximum capacity before the attacks and were able to mitigate their impact by restarting backup units at both damaged and unaffected plants, as well as bringing the attacked units back into service after repairs.

Russia has a total refining capacity of about 6.6 million barrels per day, but industry sources say this is rarely used to full capacity.

Kiev says its drone offensive is aimed at cutting off fuel supplies to Russian troops in Ukraine and depriving Moscow of oil revenue.

The International Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Russia's revenue from sales of crude oil and petroleum products fell in August to one of the lowest levels recorded since the start of the war in 2022 and so far.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed last month that the long-range attacks had cut Russia's gasoline supply by up to a fifth.

But the Kremlin says the fuel market is stable, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow will never give in to pressure from abroad.

Kicks in the depth of the territory

Although Russian refineries are doing fine for now, Kiev's drone strikes have not been without effect.

In the first quarter of the year, Ukraine hit six major refineries, including Ryazan, Volgograd, Saratov, Tuapse, Ufa and Astrakhan.

And since early August, Ukraine has launched at least 58 attacks on key Russian energy targets, sending drones up to 2,000 km (1,200 miles) deep into Russian territory, according to data compiled by the UK-based non-profit group Open Source Centre.

Ukrainian drones have damaged major factories, including those in Novokuibyshevsk, Kirishi and Salavat, since early August.

Meanwhile, Western sanctions have complicated Russia's efforts to obtain spare parts from Western companies that have helped modernize most of its refineries over the past 30 years.

Russian firms say they have found ways to produce equipment domestically or import it from China, which remains a strategic ally of Moscow. And the repairs ensured that refineries were back in operation within weeks, in most cases, industry sources said.

But repairs are expensive and sometimes take longer to complete, making another important issue unclear – how long Russia will be able to call on spare capacity if Ukrainian drone attacks continue.