Pokrovsk looks like ghost city. Where once the streets were filled with restaurants and international cafes, soldiers are now stationed.
Destruction in Pokrovsk, October 7, 2025.Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images
The post by Ukrainian parliamentarian Oleksiy Honcharenko clearly shows the dramatic situation. On the night from Monday to Tuesday he wrote on Telegram: “We are losing Pokrovsk. The Russians have entered the city.” Military bloggers estimate that there are between 300 and 500 Russian soldiers currently on site.
-If the city is captured, Ukraine's situation will look bleak – Klemens Fischer tells Blick. A geopolitics expert from the University of Cologne explains what this would mean for the further course of the war in Ukraine. — The fall of Pokrovsk would be like dam burst. The Russians could conquer territory west to the Dnieper, he adds. However, this operation would not be carried out quickly, but at a slow pace.
The focus would be on Ukraine's “fortress belt” — the towns of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka further south. Even Zaporizhia is within reach. According to Fischer, this is quite realistic. – If the situation continues to develop like this, Russian troops could advance on a wider front by Christmas – says the expert.
Fortress city
The consequences would be far-reaching. — Western European countries would have to prepare for a large wave of refugees numbering several million people, adds Fischer. In such a case, according to the expert, Ukraine would actually lose the military war.
— Capturing the city would be a great victory for Russiabecause it has a huge symbolic value, especially since Kiev has always claimed that this fortress will not fall, emphasizes the Austrian, who previously worked as a diplomat. The city could serve the Russians primarily as a winter headquarters for the armed forces.
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In addition, Pokrovsk lies on the supply route of the Ukrainian army and is considered important logistics center. It therefore plays an important role from a defense point of view. In addition, there is a coking plant in the city in Donbas, which is necessary for steel production.
The Donetsk region has already been the scene of several bloody battles. In September 2022, Russia took control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye and unilaterally announced their annexation.
Desperation on the front
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has shown a combative attitude towards Pokrovsk in recent weeks. Reports that the city is surrounded have been repeatedly denied. According to Fischer, a defeat would be disastrous for Ukraine's morale because it would be difficult to believe in Zelensky's leadership.
To defend the city, troops were sent to the region task force “Timur”. According to Fischer, this is not entirely a wise move. – The last remaining task force has been dispatched. Ukraine no longer has strong defense, explains the expert.
Military operations in the Pokrovsk region, October 16, 2025.Marharyta Fal / Getty Images
— Such elite units have already been sacrificed in Mariupol and Kursk, without, however, changing the course of the war in Ukraine's favor in the long run. In the coming weeks, there will be a shortage of such units in subsequent hotspots, he adds.
Former separatist leader Igor Girkin does not see the situation as dramatically as Fischer. He has been behind bars for two years because he repeatedly criticized Putin — not for invading Ukraine, but for not being successful enough. From his cell, Girkin reports that the tactical success at Pokrovsk will certainly be presented as a “decisive victory.”
Both sides under pressure
However, in reality, even if the Russian army advances further by 50 or 100 km, little will change. — It won't lead to that final collapse of the front Ukrainian armed forces – says Briton Shaun Pinner, a former soldier of the Ukrainian forces and a former prisoner of war of the Russians. — Pokrovsk is the place where Russia feels it must winand the Ukrainian army will make the enemy pay dearly for the attempt, he adds.
Despite recent successes, Russia is also under pressure. The offensive consumes enormous resources, and material and human losses are high. However, from the Kremlin's point of view, weakening the armed forces would be dangerous. — Every delay costs strength and opens up opportunities for Ukraine to stabilize, explains the military officer.
However, the Russian army, numbering approximately 600,000 soldiers, has to do with only about 200,000. Ukrainian defenders on a 1.2 thousand km long front. km. According to Fischer, this is another indication that it is getting closer military decision.
