The latest report of the Central Statistical Office shows that in 2060 the population of Poland will be 28.4 million. This is a decrease of 24.3%. compared to 2024. In turn, there will be more people of non-working age than of working age.
Is Poland at risk of demographic implosion, or, as it were, internal annihilation – the extinction of the country due to a dramatic decline in population?
– We are in danger if we do not prepare for this – replied the president of ZUS Zbigniew Derdziuk in the “Onet Rano. Finansowo” program.
He also emphasized that the demographic balance in Poland is disturbed. — Demographic balance, i.e. equality of these cohorts, is very important. This is really changing, because once 750,000 people entered the labor market. people, today there are about 300 to 400 thousand. people – he explained.
Currently, the lowest number of children are born in Poland – approximately 250,000. annually. – Unfortunately, this trend continues, because a few years ago the fertility rate was 1.43, which was the one assumed by ZUS, now the latest forecast is already at 1.1 – he noted.
Read also: Dramatic decline in births in Poland. This has not been the case for 200 years
What's the cause? “Our approach” or lack of housing?
When asked what the reason for the low fertility rate in Poland was, the president of ZUS said that “people enjoy the freedom of life.” — It simply results from our approach, people prefer to enjoy their lives. This is the cultural approach – he said.
To the comment that young people do not want to start families also for other reasons, such as the crisis in the housing market, he replied: – This is a matter of appropriate state policy. All governments have acted to increase housing capacity.
Derdziuk noted that currently in Poland we are experiencing a process of migration from small to large cities. Apartments in big cities are expensive and go quickly. But there are a lot of empty buildings in smaller towns, but no one wants to live there, he said.
Read also: What's wrong with Polish demography. This data explains a lot
Poland's grim demographic scenario
Last week, the Central Statistical Office presented experimental population projections until 2060.
The Central Statistical Office noted that the official variant of the 2023 population forecast assumed a gradual increase in the fertility rate until 2060, when it was to reach 1.49 (however, still significantly below the level of simple generation replacement, i.e. 2.1).
The simulation assumed that fertility will continue to remain at the very low level observed in 2024.
All considered scenarios, both the current population forecast and the experimental ones taking into account the presented changes in demographic components, predict a systematic decline in the population of Poland.
The fastest rate of decline is observed for the scenario taking into account low fertility rates. The Central Statistical Office pointed out that in this case, Poland's population may decrease to 28.4 million in 2060, which would mean a reduction of 24.3%. compared to 2024 In the official scenario of the current forecast, Poland's population is expected to decrease by 2060 to 30.9 million (by 17.6%).
The smallest population loss is expected in the scenario with increased life expectancy – according to forecasts, this number will amount to 32.3 million (a decrease of 13.9%).
In each scenario considered (both the official forecast and experimental scenarios), the number of people of pre-working and working age will decrease, while the number of people of post-working age will increase.
Author: Natalia Szewczak, journalist and editorial secretary of Business Insider Polska. Contact: [email protected]
