The conclusions of the KSE logistics analysis ask Russia difficult questions about the possibility of further war in Ukraine. In 2024, the supply of military equipment from warehouses decreased by over 25 %, which means a serious weakening of resources such as tanks, armored vehicles and artillery platforms.
As the conflict was escalated since February 2022, Russia mobilized the supplies from the USSR, modernizing the weapon models previously withdrawn. The front hit, among others T-72 and T-80 tanks, which debuted in the 1970s, as well as older T-54 models, created in the late 1940s. The latter, though historical, were still used in combat operations.
Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna military analyst, but he cools excessive optimism in the assessment of the situation, claiming thatThe smaller supply of armored vehicles may result from both the evolution of tactics and the significant financial outlays of Russia to the expansion of their arsenals. In an interview with “FT” he noticed that Russia could limit the use of such vehicles on the battlefield, trying to preserve its resources and prepare for any larger conflicts.
Read also: The USA returns with nuclear weapons to Great Britain. This is a clear message for Moscow
North Korea enters the game
KSE analyzes indicate that North Korea plays an important role in completing Russia's stocks. According to researchers, as much as 52 percent The supply of explosives to Russian magazines could come from the North Korean Nachodka, the port of the Japanese Sea. From this region, transport increased from zero before the war in Ukraine to 250,000. tons in 2024. Pyongyang's support also included a shipment of 28 thousand. containers, as suggested by a South Korean interview. Reptiles believe that ammunition from North Korea allows Russia to maintain the regularity of the front of the front, while enabling it to store more advanced weapons for the future.
These types of hypotheses seem to confirm the data of the Ukrainian military intelligence. In July, the head of this institution, Kyryło Budanov, announced that as much as 40 percent. Russian ammunition was to come from North Korean exports. Further KSE analysis also indicated the possibility of delivering explosives from Iran, which was deduced based on transport routes ending in the Caspian Sea region.
China is the greatest support
According to researchers from KSE, the growing cooperation with China plays an even greater role. Officially, Beijing denies the provision of any military assistance, but logistics data suggest something different. Transports from Chinese border regions have increased almost twice since 2021, reaching over 3 million tons.
Lucas Risinger from KSE emphasizes that even if there is no evidence of direct weapon shipping, China provides Russia with key machines and components necessary to maintain the operation of the arms industry. The accusations against Beijing of hidden support of military for Russia remain one of the most controversial aspects of the current conflict.
Although the exhausting reserves of military equipment and deriving assistance from the authoritarian countries signal growing challenges for Russia, it is difficult to recognize that it would stop its armed activities at any moment.
