Oil prices are falling. Are we facing an excess supply?


A barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, intended for December deliveries, currently costs $59.74 on the NYMEX in New York, which means a decrease of 0.65%. In turn, Brent, the international benchmark, valued as of January 2026, on the ICE exchange reached the level of USD 63.71, recording a reduction of 0.55%.
In the coming days, investors will have access to a number of reports that may shed light on the current state of the oil market. OPEC will present its monthly analysis of the situation on Wednesday, at the same time the International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish an annual forecast for the market, and a day later it will present a detailed report on this raw material. In the United States, the Department of Energy (DoE) will release official data on oil and oil product inventories for the past week, and the American Petroleum Institute (API) will present its industry report on the same matter.
Analysts point out that Brent is heading for its third consecutive annual price decline. The value of this benchmark has been higher since the beginning of this year decreased by about 15%, and October brought the third consecutive monthly decline in prices — the longest downward streak since the beginning of the year.
Experts emphasize that the global oil market may soon enter a phase of excess supply. The International Energy Agency already signaled in October that the record surplus of raw material may be even larger than originally expected. According to the IEA, in 2026, oil supply may exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day, which would be an unprecedented annual phenomenon.




