The specter of a stock market collapse. Dark clouds are gathering over Trump

Dark clouds are gathering over US President Donald Trump, including recent Democratic victories, poll results, the specter of a stock market collapse, and even the first symptoms of disloyalty of his political guard – writes Adam Roberts, editor of “Economista” online, announcing the new issue of the weekly.

Roberts points out that Democrats won important votes in the regional and local elections on November 4, and the analysis of their results provided a lot of data that is not favorable to the Trump administration. The candidates of the Democratic Party won the elections for the governors of Virginia and New Jersey and the mayor of New York.

Not only do polls show that Americans are not satisfied with the president's second term because they are concerned about the state of the economy, but consumer confidence is falling dramatically and the situation on the labor market is deteriorating.

Polls and analyzes conducted after the Democrats' victory in the closely watched elections in Virginia and New Jersey show that groups such as Latinos and people under 30 who supported him in the presidential elections are turning away from Trump, the author emphasizes.

The turnout worked in favor of the Democrats, indicating a large mobilization of the liberal electorate; Moreover, the Economist's analysis indicates that a certain share of Republican voters voted for them, writes Roberts.

The latest weekly poll also showed that a year before the midterm congressional elections, Democrats have an advantage of 3 points. percentages.

An even more serious problem for the Trump administration may be a deep stock market correction, which seems increasingly likely. Last week, the fall in AI companies reduced their market valuation by $800 billion, and “there is every reason to expect more damage,” Roberts writes.

He adds that this would particularly undermine the position of the president, who has always boasted that rising stock market ratings are a measure of his success. Moreover, it would greatly hurt Trump that a market crash would affect ordinary voters, given that approximately $42 trillion (20 percent of Americans' total wealth) is invested in American stock market assets.

The strangest signal of Trump's potential problems is the position of Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, the author says.

So far, she has been one of the president's most loyal supporters, but now she has distanced herself from Trump and denied his assurances that inflation is falling. Of course, you can ignore her opinions and consider her an extreme right-wing conspiracy theorist, but you should remember that she is an efficient “political operator,” writes Roberts.

He further explains that if Taylor Greene makes it clear that he is distancing himself from Trump, it is a signal to other Republican congressmen.

Therefore, it should not be assumed that the Democratic Party is in a state of collapse, although in the last presidential election, for the first time in two decades, it lost also by the number of electoral votes, and not only by the votes of electors. The results of the November 4 vote “give her reasons to be happy.” (PAP)

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