Unimot's Q3 adjusted EBITDA estimate is in line with consensus

Unimot's estimated adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of 2025 amounted to PLN 87 million, the fuel company announced in a statement. The result is in line with the expectations of analysts, who also estimated it at PLN 87 million.

“The market environment in the fuel industry is still not conducive to achieving the results we expect. The effects of the sanctions gap are particularly severe, which means that LPG with an admixture of Russian products will flood the Polish market in 2025, while as a group we incur the costs of maintaining logistics from the west,” said Adam Sikorski, president of Unimot, quoted in the release.

He pointed out that the 19th sanctions package includes isobutanes and n-butane, which will disappear from the Polish market after January 26, when the transitional period of this package ends.

“In the third quarter, we achieved a solid result in the bitumen segment, which is just finishing its peak season. We see great potential for the future in transformation areas – we have already concluded three cooperation agreements with Ukrainian companies in the field of renewable energy sources, and on the Polish market we will implement, among others, a large project for Dino, consisting of the installation of photovoltaic panels in 120 stores of this chain,” said Adam Sikorski.

Adjusted EBITDA includes EBITDA adjusted for the estimated valuation of the mandatory reserves of liquid and gaseous fuels, justified shifts in time of costs and revenues and one-off events. EBITDA reported at that time reached PLN 75 million.

The group's estimated sales revenues in the third quarter reached PLN 3.72 billion, and the market expected PLN 3.88 billion.

A year ago, the adjusted EBITDA of the Unimot group amounted to PLN 105 million, EBITDA reached PLN 42 million, and revenues were PLN 3.65 billion.

According to Unimot, in the third quarter of 2025 the liquid fuels segment achieved adjusted EBITDA of PLN 18 million.

“The land premium for diesel oil remains at a level that limits the possibility of achieving satisfactory margins, and in addition, at the beginning of the third quarter of 2025, a strong backwardation trend was recorded on the diesel market, i.e. a situation in which the prices of contracts for later deliveries were lower than current prices, which exerted negative pressure on the financial results of this segment,” the release said.

According to the company, the amendment to the Act of February 16, 2007 on stocks of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas had a positive impact on the fuel industry. The changes introduced included, among others: gradual reduction of the level of maintaining mandatory stocks by fuel producers and traders, which reduces their burden.

Unimot estimates that in 2025, thanks to changes to the Act, the segment's adjusted EBITDA will be increased by PLN 5-6 million.

In the third quarter of 2025, the Unimot Group recorded sales of liquid fuels of 600,000. m. six.

In the third quarter of 2025, the bitumen segment generated PLN 50 million of adjusted EBITDA. This segment achieves maximum sales efficiency in the second and third quarter, due to the peak road construction and renovation season occurring in this period.

The infrastructure and logistics segment had PLN 32 million in adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of 2025.

Adjusted EBITDA in the LPG segment in the third quarter of 2025 was negative and amounted to PLN -14 million.

“A sanction loophole is being exploited on the Polish market, allowing for the supply of isobutanes and n-butane of Russian origin. The rapidly growing sales of the Russian product on the Polish market resulted in the deterioration of market conditions and significantly reduced the efficiency of the segment. This factor, combined with the decline in domestic LPG consumption and the Unimot Group incurring increased logistics costs resulting from the change of the supply chain towards the West, resulted in the Group's losses on LPG sales,” it was written. message.

Additionally, the third quarter included costs resulting from the revaluation of unit costs related to LPG trade for the three quarters of 2025.

Unimot will report its results for the third quarter of 2025 on Tuesday, November 18. (PAP Business)

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