“The specter of the return to power of nationalists from Law and Justice, supported by the more extreme right, has never been so clear,” writes the daily.
He estimates that the result of the 2023 parliamentary elections was assessed as a kind of “democratic miracle” and a “return to normality” not only in Poland, but also in Europe, where an increase in populism was observed. “Two years later, halfway through the term, the disappointment is enormous,” notes “Le Monde.”
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According to the daily, cohabitation with President Karol Nawrocki “promises to be worse” than with his predecessor Andrzej Duda, but the government coalition “seems to have no plan B.” “Engaged in personal and electoral conflicts, (the coalition) did not carry out any strategic reflection to gain breathing space and overcome difficulties,” the commentator admits.
“Donald Tusk's strategic mistake”
The daily cites “a combination of objective institutional obstacles, strategic errors and poor management” as the reason for this state of affairs. According to “Le Monde”, due to “disastrous communication”, such government successes as unblocking European funds, “decrease in inflation, increase in social spending”, as well as activity in the international arena, “have gone almost unnoticed”.
“Donald Tusk's strategic mistake was to opt for a full confrontation with President Andrzej Duda instead of trying to implement, with his support and by mutual consent, laws that could have improved the lives of citizens, e.g. in the field of health or housing,” says “Le Monde”. He accuses Polish liberals of taking a wait-and-see attitude, “convinced that the presidential elections are won in advance.” The daily adds that the government's “turn to the right” caused “amazement”, which gave “the coalition's voters the impression that the government was conducting its policy under the dictate of right-wing public opinion”.
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“The lack of concrete results of this policy resulted in particular in the loss of youth votes (…) and their flight to the extreme right and radical left,” notes “Le Monde”.
He points out that PiS has maintained stable support in polls for years at the level of 30 percent, and the presidential elections showed that Confederation can count on 15 percent thanks to the youth's votes. “All analyzes indicate that Jarosław Kaczyński's party will not be able to govern alone and should turn to the extreme right. The second PiS government would potentially be much more radical than the previous one,” the daily predicts.
“In the face of populisms that do not hesitate to use and abuse the tools of power, democrats cannot afford the slightest weakness or the slightest lack of courage,” emphasizes “Le Monde.”
