Viktor Orban wants to create a new Visegrad Group. Without Poland. “Reconstruction continues”
Orban's adviser – Balazs Orban – explains that the Hungarian Prime Minister hopes to establish cooperation with Andrej Babis, whose right-wing populist party won the last parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic, as well as with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, with whom he has often reached an agreement on issues related to the war in Ukraine [obaj opowiadają się za dialogiem z Rosją i są uważani za “przyjaciół” Władimira Putina w Europie].
Although a lasting political alliance is still a long way off, could significantly hamper EU efforts to provide financial and military support to Ukraine.
– I think it will happen – and he will [sojusz] more and more visible – says the Prime Minister's political director, Balazs Orban, when asked about the possibility of creating an alliance skeptical towards Ukraine, which would start acting as a bloc in the European Council.
— This worked very well during the migration crisis. This way we could [wspólnie] to resist, says Orban, referring to [stanowiska] The Visegrad Group (V4), which includes Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, at a time when the Eurosceptic Law and Justice party was in power in Warsaw after 2015.
Then-Poland Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki led the alliance as its largest member, and the V4 group promoted pro-family policies and strong external borders of the EU, opposing the mandatory relocation of migrants between member states.
Visegrad Alliance [nieformalnie] it fell apart after Russia's full invasion of Ukraine because Poland favored a tough stance against Moscow and Hungary took the opposite stance.
The new Visegrad alliance would have three members, not four. Poland's current center-right Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, is a staunch supporter [wspierania] Ukraine and is unlikely to enter into any agreement with Orban.
However, Fico and Babisz share the Hungarian leader's views on Ukrainecalling for dialogue with Moscow instead of exerting economic pressure. The Czech has been criticized for his public skeptical stance towards further European aid for Kiev, and the current Czech foreign minister warned in an interview with POLITICO that Babis would act as Orbán's “puppet” at the European Council table.
Still, reform of the Visegrad Alliance in any form may take some time. Although Fico was re-elected as Slovakia's prime minister in 2023, he has not formed a formal alliance with the Hungarian leader in specific policy areas. Babis, on the other hand, has not yet formed a government following his party's recent election victory.
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More than the Visegrad Triangle
Hungary's desire to forge political alliances in Brussels goes beyond the European Council, says Balazs Orban.
The Hungarian prime minister's Fidesz party – part of the far-right group Patriots for Europe – may expand its partnerships in the European Parliament. The political director lists the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists group, the far-right Europa Sovereign Nations group and “some left-wing groups” as potential allies.
Major parties such as the center-right European People's Party may sooner or later turn against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, destroying the centrist majority that supported her re-election, according to an adviser to the Hungarian prime minister.
– So, a rebuild [Grupy Wyszehradzkiej] lasts. We have the third largest faction in the European Parliament. We have a network of think tanks that is widespread here [w Brukseli] and also has a transatlantic branch. We are looking for partners and allies in every field, says Balazs Orban.
The Mathias Corvinus Collegium, a think tank that receives most of its funding from allies of the Hungarian leader and whose president is Balazs Orban, has increased its presence in Brussels since its establishment in 2022.
The Hungarian prime minister, who has been in power for 15 years, will face re-election next year. According to a POLITICO poll, the Tisza party, led by opposition leader Peter Magyar, is currently more popular than Orban's Fidesz party.
Asked about the upcoming election campaign, the adviser said it would be “as difficult as ever,” blaming Brussels for what he called an “organized, coordinated effort to oust the Hungarian government” that included “political support for the opposition.”
The European Commission says the measures to withhold funds from Hungary are the result of Budapest's failure to comply with EU law, not a political agenda.
Asked whether Budapest still supports Hungarian Health Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi, who, according to media reports, led the recruitment of spies into EU institutions when he worked as an EU diplomat, Orban said the commissioner was “doing a great job.”
“These are just… issues that are being used to portray Hungary as a country that is disloyal to institutions,” he said. — We want to be inside. We are part of the club.
