They calculated how much Russia would need to occupy all of Ukraine. We're talking about the next century
The magazine emphasized that Russia's summer offensive is coming to an end, and although it was the third and largest attack since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, its territorial effects are minimal. The price Russia paid for these actions is “terrible.”
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Why such pessimistic calculations for Russia? Analysts point to the main reasons
“Unless there are dramatic changes, Vladimir Putin will not be able to win the war on the battlefield. The fact that he still tries suggests that he has run out of ideas” – it was written in the analysis.
The weekly admitted that it is difficult to accurately estimate losses on the Russian side, but satellite data, changes in the front line and independent calculations allow us to indicate that from the beginning of the invasion in 2022 to January 2024. Russia lost a total of 640,000 to 877,000. soldiers, of which 137-228 thousand died.
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By October 13, these numbers were expected to increase to 984,000. — 1.44 million victims, including 190-480 thousand killed. “The Economist” noted that such huge losses did not translate into any significant territorial gains.
The front line, as noted, stabilized after the end of the first Ukrainian counteroffensive in October 2022 and has remained virtually unchanged since then. At the rate observed over the past 30 days, it would take until June 2030 for Moscow to occupy the remaining parts of the four regions formally annexed by Russia — Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhye.
According to the weekly, a sudden collapse of Ukrainian defense is unlikely. Both armies operate under constant drone surveillance and the use of long-range precision weapons, which makes the concentration of large forces at the front suicidal. Russia can only make slow progress, sending small groups of soldiers into the “death zone” with huge losses.
Ukraine's losses on the front of the fight against Russia
The weekly also quoted data from the UALosses website, according to which Since the beginning of the war, 77,403 Ukrainian soldiers have died, and another 77,000. were considered missing. However, since autumn 2023, there has been a clear decline in the number of victims – in 2024, 8,668 deaths were recorded. Even if actual losses are twice as high, this means that for every Ukrainian killed, there are on average five Russian soldiers killed.
“At this rate, staff shortages may soon become a bigger problem for Russia than for Ukraine” – assessed “The Economist”. It added that if Putin continues his offensive despite everything, he will expose himself to another threat: after three years of unsuccessful attacks, a sudden collapse of the Russian war machine may become more likely than a breakthrough of the Ukrainian defense lines.
