The big dilemma before the Trump-Putin summit in Budapest. How the “Flying Kremlin” ends up in EU airspace

The details for the second meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have not yet been finalized, but if the Kremlin leader is to travel to Budapest to meet with the head of the White House in the next two weeks, he will have to overcome some obstacles first, the BBC reports.

When Putin traveled to Alaska for the Anchorage summit in August, the United States granted a special authorization for the presidential plane – a modified Ilyushin Il-96 airliner, nicknamed the “Flying Kremlin”, which has four engines and is equipped with defense systems, writes News.ro.

Russian planes are banned from flying in US and EU airspace. So, if Putin flies to Budapest, he will need a waiver if he decides to fly over an EU member state.

It is perfectly possible, but Hungary, a landlocked country, is not the easiest destination for a Russian president who rarely travels abroad and has not visited the EU for years, says the BBC.

“For now, of course, it is not clear,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “What we have is the willingness of the presidents to organize such a meeting.”

Ban on Russian aircraft

Days after Putin ordered Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU froze the assets of both its leader and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Also, a general ban was imposed on all Russian aircraft flying over the airspace of the 27 EU countries. Hungary and many of its neighboring countries are also NATO member states.

Putin has also been charged by the International Criminal Court with war crimes for the illegal deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia.

So there are complications, although Hungary believes that they can all be resolved. Hungary is in the process of withdrawing from the ICC anyway.

The head of Hungarian diplomacy assures that Putin will return home

Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, arguably his closest EU ally, have already spoken on the phone about the planned summit, and Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said: “We will, of course, ensure that he can enter Hungary, have fruitful talks here and then return home.”

It is unlikely that the EU will create obstacles. The European Commission said that any meeting that promotes “a just and lasting peace for Ukraine” is welcome and that it supports President Trump's efforts in this regard.

One of the main reasons for the latest proposed sanctions against Russia – the 19th package to date – is to bring the Russians to the negotiating table, the document states. It is also emphasized that there is no travel ban for Putin, only an asset freeze.

The biggest sticking point is how the Russian leader will fly from Moscow to Budapest. It is obvious that he will not buy an Air Serbia ticket to Belgrade and take the train to Hungary, which would be the most direct route.

Decision taken by each EU member

He will want his Il-96 plane to guarantee his safety, but that will likely mean using the airspace of an EU and NATO member state and getting permission to violate the EU ban on Russian planes.

The spokeswoman of the European Commission, Anitta Hipper, said on Friday that “as far as the direction of travel is concerned, the member states can grant exemptions, but they must be granted by the member states individually.”

NATO has also referred the issue to their respective national authorities, and given that Trump is involved, they may accept.

Even with a waiver, a look at the map shows that Putin may have to detour. Ukraine is excluded, and probably Poland too, because of the cold relations between Warsaw and Moscow.

Possible direct routes, through Bulgaria and Romania

Perhaps the most direct route goes through the eastern coast of the Black Sea and Turkey, through Bulgaria and either Serbia or Romania to Hungary.

The president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, knows Putin well, and Air Serbia has direct flights to Moscow over EU airspace. Serbia is a candidate for EU membership, but is not a member.

The EU countries, Bulgaria or maybe Romania, should agree and should escort Putin's plane through their airspace. Romania has what is to become the largest NATO base in Europe, and Bulgaria is also building a NATO base as part of efforts to strengthen the eastern flank of the defensive alliance. The BBC has contacted the foreign ministries of both countries for comment.

Long but safe route

If Putin wants to play it even safer, he could fly through Turkey, around the southern coast of Greece and then through Montenegrin airspace before flying over Serbia. But it is a much longer route.

Budapest is then not the easiest of destinations, even if it works very well for Viktor Orban, who has long had good relations with both Putin and Donald Trump.

A high-profile international summit will do no harm to Orban, who is trailing in the polls ahead of next spring's election.

A few hours after Budapest was designated as the venue, Orban called Putin and declared on his Facebook page: “Preparations are in full swing!”

Orban was quick to clarify that Brussels would have nothing to do with the negotiations. “Since the EU is pro-war, it makes sense that it will be excluded from this peace process,” he said on Hungarian radio on Friday.