Investors were trembling over the weekend about what the Monday session on the WSE would bring, after a sell-off took place on Friday, after the close of trading in Warsaw, due to the deterioration of relations between Washington and Beijing. The continuation of the sell-off was prevented by President Trump, who, as if nothing had happened, declared that “everything will be fine with China.”
Let us recall that on Friday EuroStoxx600 lost 1.3%. – the most in over a month, DAX decreased by 1.5%. and CAC40 fell by 1.5 percent, while the WIG20 price on the Warsaw Stock Exchange did not change significantly (-0.04 percent). This is because those investing on the WSE, where trading ended at 5 p.m., did not have time to react to US President Donald Trump's comments that, as a result of tightening Chinese controls on the export of rare earth metals, there is no point in meeting with Xi Jinping. In addition, he announced plans to introduce 100% tariffs on all “critical software” and goods from China, which would come into force on November 1, 2025.
After a period of relative calm in US-China relations and the planning of a meeting of the leaders of the world's two largest economies during the APEC summit in South Korea, investors received a cold shower on their heads, which caused a sharp retreat from risky assets. On Wall Street, Friday's sell-off reached 2.7%. on the S&P500 and over 3.5 percent on Nasdaq. What happened on the cryptocurrency market, where prices dropped by several dozen percent, was called “Black Friday”.
Everything will be fine
No wonder that investors were anxiously awaiting the Monday start of the WSE session and the adjustment of valuations to the new circumstances. However, the effects of Friday's bloody after party, which took place without the participation of the market in Warsaw, were eliminated on Sunday. Donald Trump once again played the leading role, writing on his social media: “I think that everything will be fine with China. Don't worry about China, everything will be fine!” The words of the song “Three Little Birds” by Bob Marley must have resounded in investors' ears: “Don't worry about a thing, 'cause every little thing is gonna be alright” (Don't worry about anything, everything will be fine).
Investors, as usual when it comes to reggae music, started Monday's trading with a decline of around 0.9%. for WIG20, but this was all the supply could afford that day. The low opening and improved sentiment on global markets after Trump's Chinese volte-face and signals from the US administration about the US's openness to an agreement with China led to the loss being made up for. Analysts point out that this all looks like the next phase of US-China “pre-transaction” negotiations. In the background of the American-Chinese clash, there is information that a new government was established in France by Sebastien Lecornu.
Meanwhile, the markets are expected to hear statements from nearly 40 central bankers, including the heads of the Fed, ECB and BoE, as part of the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington in the coming days. On this occasion, the IMF will present new macro and fiscal projections for the world. It remains a mystery whether investors will learn the current macro data from the US. Everything depends on the end of the shutdown, and a very important inflation report should be released this week.
The market rebounded on Monday after the Friday sell-off, which bypassed the WSE. DAX was rising by 0.4% at the end of the session in Warsaw. By over 1 percent indexes on Wall Street were reflecting. In such circumstances, WIG20 ended Monday's session after a weak opening, gaining 0.07 percent at the end of the session. However, WIG was 0.1% lower, and mWIG40 dropped by 0.5%, while sWIG80 lost 0.73%. The turnover on the broad market was estimated at PLN 1.42 billion, of which PLN 1.15 billion concerned WIG20 companies.
Session on October 13, 2025 from an expert's perspective
“We are having a bit of a tug of war. It seemed that today's Monday session would start poorly. It was actually under the sign of supply in the first, let's say, 15-20 minutes. Then we managed to return almost to Friday's closing,” Sobiesław Kozłowski, director of the Analysis and Advisory Department at Noble Securities, told PAP Biznes.
He pointed out that at this point we are waiting and trying to recover from the largest companies. “To sum up, I would say that banks and WIG20 are waiting for the results of American banks. Tomorrow begins the earnings season in the United States. This will show what the market sentiment is,” he said.
“Now the fundamental question is whether this escalation between China and the US is, let's say, a bogeyman, or is it something bigger and will affect the sentiment towards companies from the AI sector or new technology sectors and translate into a cooling of risky assets – because gold is at all-time highs, silver is also high, optimism is high. The consensus is that this is a short correction – the question is whether it is appropriate assumption at this time,” added Sobiesław Kozłowski.
Quotations of WIG20 companies and the broader market
Among blue chips, the prices of CD Projekt shares (-1.89%) and Santander Bank (-1.67%) fell the most on Monday. Alior Bank (-1.2%) and mBank (-1.05%) were also under pressure. Shares of Orange, Kruk, PZU, Orlen, Kęty and LPP fell on a smaller scale.
However, the shares of CCC (2.75%) and, traditionally, KGHM (2.26%) – the most frequently traded company on Monday – were strong. With copper prices rising by about 4%. and new records in silver prices, the turnover on the shares of the copper giant amounted to PLN 264 million.
The remaining large banks recorded increases in WIG20: PKO (0.59%) and Pekao (0.14%). The shares of Dino (1.26%) and Allegro (0.96%) still appreciated significantly. The prices of other large companies increased by no more than 0.4%.
Mirbud's shares stood out on the broad market (5.26%) after Trigon DM increased the valuation of the company's shares and recommended “buy”. In turn, by 1.71 percent JSW's price dropped. On Saturday, information appeared that the company was starting preparations for the business restructuring process. Scope Fluidics (2.45%) has signed an agreement with American transaction advisor Perella Weinberg Partners, which begins the next stage of the process of acquiring a global business partner.
Michal Kubicki
