Donald Trump has repeatedly said that he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. He mentioned it, among others: at the UN Assembly in September, claiming to have helped end “seven endless wars”. In July, he allegedly called Jens Stoltenberg, former NATO secretary general, to ask about his chances of receiving the award.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced on Thursday, October 9, that the decision regarding the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 was made a few days earlier, on Monday, and only six people in the world know the winner. This happened a few days before Israel and Hamas accepted a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip according to a plan presented by the US president.
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According to “The Guardian”, experts and Norwegian commentators agree that Donald Trump's chances of receiving the award are slim. Such predictions cause concern in Oslo because it is unclear how the US president will react to the results.
Donald Trump and the Nobel Peace Prize. In Norway, they are preparing for his reaction
Kirsti Bergsto, chairwoman of the Norwegian Socialist Left Party and foreign policy spokeswoman, emphasized that Norway must be prepared for every eventuality. She pointed out that the US president was taking the country in a radical direction, limiting freedom of speech and strengthening the activities of the secret services.
“When the president is so unstable and authoritarian, we obviously have to be prepared for anything,” Bergsto said in an interview with the Guardian. “The Nobel Committee is an independent body and the Norwegian government has no influence on awarding prizes. However, I am not sure whether Trump knows about it. We must be prepared for anything,” she added.
Arild Hermstad, leader of the Norwegian Green Party, pointed out that the independence of the Nobel Committee is crucial for the credibility of the award. “Peace prizes are won through persistent commitment, not through angry social media posts and intimidation,” said the politician, quoted by the Guardian.
“It is good that Trump supported the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Any step towards ending the suffering in Gaza is welcome. However, one late initiative will not erase years of tolerating violence and division,” Hermstad noted.
The Nobel Peace Prize is announced today. Experts point to favorites
Columnist and analyst Harald Stanghelle expressed the opinion that Trump's possible reaction to the lack of an award could take various forms – including the introduction of tariffs, a demand for an increase in the NATO budget, or even the official recognition of Norway as an enemy of the US. “Trump is so unpredictable. I don't want to use the word 'fear' but I feel like it could be a difficult situation,” Stanghelle told the Guardian.
“It's very difficult to explain to Donald Trump or many other countries around the world that this is a completely independent commission because they don't respect that kind of independence,” Stanghelle further said. According to him, awarding the prize to Trump would be “the biggest surprise in the history of the Nobel Peace Prize.”
The announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize winner will take place on Friday, October 10, at 11.00. According to experts, aid organizations operating in various regions of the world have the greatest chance of winning the award. The favorites include organizations such as the Sudanese Crisis Response Rooms, the Committee to Protect Journalists, Doctors Without Borders and the International Women's League for Peace and Freedom.
Nina Gaeger, director of the Oslo Peace Research Institute, stressed that while Trump deserves credit for his efforts to end the war in Gaza, it is too early to judge whether his initiative will bring lasting peace. She also pointed out that Trump's actions, such as distancing himself from international institutions (e.g. WHO) or attempting to take over Greenland from Denmark, are not in line with Alfred Nobel's will.
