Aleksandr Gabuyev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, emphasizes that the Central Asian countries are trying to minimize the risk of dependence on Russia and are looking for alternative ways of development. Russian aggression against Ukraine forced them to revise their own security strategies.
China, which has already overtaken Russia as the largest trading partner of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, is accelerating the implementation of the Belt and Road program. The plans include, among others: construction of another railway line with Kazakhstan. China's trade with five Central Asian republics has increased by a third in the past two years, and President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan, in what Bloomberg describes as a clear signal of Beijing's growing involvement in the region.
On the other hand The European Union has signed a strategic partnership agreement with five Central Asian countries, which provides for investments worth up to EUR 12 billion. The funds are intended to support the development of transport connections, the acquisition of mineral resources and energy. The EU is also intensifying actions aimed at counteracting the circumvention of sanctions imposed on Russia.
Countries are looking for an alternative. Russia is increasingly on the sidelines
Türkiye, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, sees an opportunity to strengthen cooperation with Azerbaijan and other countries in the region. Erdogan participated in the summit of Turkish-speaking countries in Baku, which Bloomberg interprets as another step towards building new economic and political ties.
Saudi Arabia is also increasing its involvement in Central Asia by organizing a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council with countries in the region in 2023.
Armenia, which froze cooperation with the Russian defense alliance last year after Moscow's lack of support in the conflict with Azerbaijan, is increasingly moving towards the European Union. Kazakh President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev has refused to support Russia's war in Ukraine, and last month he met with Volodymyr Zelensky at the UN General Assembly in New York.
Experts quoted by Bloomberg emphasize that the war in Ukraine has accelerated processes that were already noticeable in the region. Kate Mallinson from PRISM Strategic Intelligence Ltd. points out that countries neighboring Russia are increasingly protecting themselves against Moscow's influence. “After the invasion of Ukraine, the Central Asian countries understood that Russia, despite the costs, does not give up its strategic goals.” – says Mallinson.
Although the current situation provides an opportunity to build new cooperation networks, some experts, such as Vladislav Inozemtsev, warn that Russia's influence may recover after the end of the war. “The West rarely takes advantage of such moments,” notes the co-founder of the Center for Analysis and Strategy in Europe.
For now, however, Moscow must face growing competition. Giovanni Salvetti of Rothschild & Co. indicates that China does not hesitate to fill the gaps left by Russia in the region.
