Experts told how much alcohol will rise in price in Russia from January 1, 2026

The Government of the Russian Federation planned an increase in excise taxes on alcohol products from January 1, 2026, follows from on September 29 to consideration of the State Duma of the draft amendments to the Tax Code, Kommersant reports.

It provides that the rate for quiet wines will increase by 31 %, from the current 113 rubles. up to 148 rubles. per 1 liter of products. For sparkling wines, correction will be 8.9 %, up to 160 rubles, fruit wines and wine drinks – 11.5 %, up to 165 rubles. for 1 l. For beer with a fortress of 0.5 %to 8.6 %, meads and cider have a increase of 10 %, to 33 rubles.

Independent expert of the alcohol market Alexei Malsin calculated that, taking into account the increase in VAT and excise tax, brewers will be forced to increase the cost 1 liter of beer at least 8 rubles. In August, according to Rosstat, in retail it cost an average of 196.6 rubles. So, the minimum increase in price will be 4.1 %. But this will be added to this by increasing cost due to the growth of production and logistics costs, says Malsin.

A bottle of vodka In retail, taking into account the growth of excise tax and VAT, about 30 rubles will rise in price, says the president of the Alcopr Guild Andrei Moskovsky. According to Rosstat, 1 liter of products in retail in August cost 854.7 rubles. The base bottle of 0.5 l based on this estimate may rise in price by 7 %, to 457.4 rubles. But the market will see real new prices only in March, warns Moscow. The expert explains that in anticipation of the growth of excise taxes, manufacturers will maximize the production of products up to the New Year holidays.

According to the forecasts of the Executive Director of the Torgovaya company FORT Alexander Lipilin, with the next increase in excise taxes Inexpensive wines will increase in price by 10-15 %. The head of Wineretail Alexander Stavtsev says that an increase in excise tax for wine by 35 rubles. will lead to an increase in the price of a bottle by 70–100 rubles.

Then, a further decrease in demand, which has been traced in the market since the beginning of 2025, will follow. According to the Rosalkolletabakkontrol, in January – the August of this year in Russia, 132.5 million decalpers (DAL) were sold to beer, cider, pora and mead, which is 11.4 % less than a year by the year. The demand for beer in January -June at the same time decreased by 16.3 % a year by the year, to 291.1 million gave.

Alexey Malsin suggests that in 2026, sales of beer in retail will be reduced by at least 10 %. In the strong alcohol market, according to Mr. Moscow, the situation depends on the minimum retail price (MRC).