How to explain the difference between the polls in the Republic of Moldova and the results of the elections / a few days before the election, an institute gave a completely different winner

Three opinion polls were published in the month before the parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova, and presented results offered a very different picture of what happened in reality. For example, according to an ilted survey, Igor Dodon's patriotic block was rated at almost 25%, while the President Maia Sandu President's Action and Solidarity would have obtained about 24%, in the context in which the elections were clearly won, with over 50%.

The pro-European party in power in Chisinau (PAS) has been comfortably detached in front of its Prous rival in a crucial parliamentary election, a relief for the Government, in the context in which the Chisinau Executive is trying to stay outside the sphere of Moscow, the Reuters press agency on the Republic of Moldova commented on Monday.

The Action and Solidarity Party, the formation of President Maia Sandu, won the parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova, obtaining more than half of the votes expressed.

According to the results announced on Monday by the Central Election Commission (CEC), PAS obtained 50.20% of the total valid votes expressed, after the processing of all verbal processes.

The patriotic electoral block of the Socialists, the Communists, the heart and the future of Moldova (“Patriotic Block”), whose leader is the former socialist president Igor Dodon, ranked second, at a great distance from step, with 24.18%.

In the third position was the “alternative” electoral block of the mayor of Chisinau, Ion Ceban, who obtained 7.96% of the votes.

Renato Usatâi, the former mayor of Balti, entered Parliament with his formation, “our party”, receiving 6.2% of the living rooms.

The last party that exceeded the electoral threshold to enter the Chisinau Parliament is the Political Party “Home Democracy” (PPDA), led by Vasile Costiuc, with 5.62%.

The vote in the country vs. the vote in the diaspora

On the territory of the Republic of Moldova, the most votes took the most-44.13%, on the second place ranking the patriotic block with 28.29%. The “Alternative” block took 9.22%of the living rooms, our party – 6.35%, and PPDA – 5.72%.

Moldovan citizens in the diaspora also voted in favor of the pro -European party of President Maia Sandu.

The data centralized by the Central Election Commission (CEC) after counting all the votes of the 301 polling stations abroad, shows PAS 218,503 votes out of the total 277,965 expressed votes, which represents 78.6%.

PAS was followed by our party, which was voted by 15,285 citizens from the diaspora, respectively 5.50% of the total voters.

PPDA attracted the votes of 14,235 voters abroad (5.12%), and the patriotic block received 13,979 votes (5.03%).

Patriotic block, given the winner in the ulded survey

The latest Impata survey showed that the winner in the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova would have come out of the patriotic block by almost 25%, being closely followed by 24.7%, according to the Garde newspaper (ZdG).

According to the same survey, two formations would have entered the legislative: the “Alternative” block, with 7.2% of the votes, and our party, with 5.4% of the dashes.

However, about 20 percent of the respondents said they were undecided, they would not vote or refused to answer. In the top followed PPDA, with 2.3%.

The study had been conducted between September 7-19, on a national representative sample of 1,059 respondents, with the maximum error of +/- 2.9%.

The diapora was not taken into account, so the survey was representative for the adult population of the Republic of Moldova, except for the Transnistria region.

In other words, the icata survey indicates that it is possible for step to fail to do the majority in Parliament, and in reality things were fixed.

The general director of Idata is Mihail Bologan, former head of the section within the National Bank of Moldova (BNM).

What did the director say to you a few days before the poll

A few days before the elections on Sunday, Mihail Bologan, the director of the Idata sociological company, said in an interview with Hotnews, that “our surveys show that people are, first of all, concerned about social problems, the low level of income, poverty, inflation. Instead, the government focuses on the European integration.”

“Currently, the company is even more divided than last year,” said Mihail Bologan in the interview for the public Hotnews, published on September 26.

During the campaign for the parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova, Idata presented three polls.

Asked by Hotnews how the future majority in the Chisinau Parliament could look like, Bologan made the following details:

• “Probably an excessive polarization will happen around the two large parties, the patriotic and step block, on the day of the elections. They may accumulate even more percentages than I showed in today's survey. There are quite high chances that the “party” and the alternative block reach the Parliament, but they also depend on the vote in the diaspora, because a very weak score in the diaspora could endanger their chances.
• Thus, we can talk about four political formations that could reach the Parliament, but there are two strangers. The first, less important, is the vote on the left of the Dniester, which as a share in the total voters is not very high, perhaps a percentage or something (no- in the presidential elections voted around 15 thousand people in Transnistria).
• On the other hand, it is the diaspora, which I neither, although I conducted three surveys during the campaign and several polls in 2025, including electoral, I cannot say exactly what it will do. There are many unknown, starting with the number of people who will vote. 100,000, and 300,000, or even more than 300 thousand, can come. We don't know.
• However, many voting sections in Western Europe have been opened in particular. We also do not know how many will vote step by step.
• If in the past we could expect 75%, maximum 80% for step and Maia Sandu, this year I am not so sure that the percentage will be as high.
• On the other hand, there are rumors that surprises could appear in favor of one of other electoral candidates, as happened in the past, when Renato Usatîi first participated in the presidential elections and obtained a very high score in the diaspora. Later he took the third place.
• Respectively, the diaspora now has a very important role in the configuration of the Parliament. The diaspora will bring the necessary votes to take the first place in the race, but it is quite likely that the step does not get enough votes to have a majority alone.
• Further, a step-free majority is possible, although it also raises question marks, because all parties will be tempted to make an alliance step to ensure access to power and some key functions in the state. If a stepless alliance will be tried, it is very likely that the person designated for prime minister is not accepted by President Maia Sandu, which could cause early elections. So, in my opinion, the most likely scenario is now a majority without step and anticipated choices after the prime minister is not accepted.“

After the centralization of all the votes in the Diapora, the data showed that PAS obtained 78.61%outside the country.

CBS Research Survey: Only two games and Dodon's block passed the threshold

The results of the survey conducted by Watchdog.md and the CBS Research Sociological Research Center showed that only three parties would have entered the Parliament:

• Step – with 29.7%;
• Patriotic block – with 13.2%;
• Our party – with 7.5%.

26.8% of the respondents said they did not decide with whom they vote, and 6.7% refused to answer.

The period of data collection was 6 – 13 September 2025. The volume of the sample was 1,127 respondents, the maximum error being +2.9%.

Like the survey, the diaspora and the Transnistria region were not taken into account.

The CBS Research Sociological Research Center is run by Ion Jigău.

Barometer of public opinion, results similar to CBS Research survey

Another survey, published by the Barometer of Public Opinion (BOP), showed that 28.6% of the people decided to vote for the step, 13.9% for the patriotic block, and 5.1% in favor of the formation “Our Party”.

Other candidates would not have passed the electoral threshold.

The survey was conducted on September 12-22, on a sample of 1,117 people. The maximum error was ± 2.9%.

The survey was representative for the adult population in the country, except for the diaspora and the Transnistrian region.

A possible explanation for the difference between surveys and reality

Sociologist Vasile Cantarji, from the CBS-Axa Sociological Center in Chisinau, points out that the polls did not include the diaspora and the population to the left of the Dniester (Transnistria).

“The diaspora votes quite specifically and cannot be neglected. 17% of the votes came from the diaspora,” Cantarji explained.

According to him, an important factor is that the polls also consider the undecided.

The sociologist says that “it is clear that the percentage for all parties, in the elections, is to be higher than the polls show, for the simple reason that the hundred percent is all the people who voted”, while in the case of the “hundred percent polls is the whole population”, including those who do not vote or have not decided yet.

“If we take the same barometer and recalculate to the number of people decided, then PAS has (…) 49%. When we made public the results, I pointed out that there are a large number of indecisions,” said Vasile Cantarji.

“The only one, apparently surprise, is” democracy at home “, but, as in the case of our party, we set evolutions, we set that” democracy at home “is growing and here it was the last week.