The economy of Ukraine has clearly slowed down. “Public finances strongly dependent on foreign support”

Preliminary data from Ukraine indicate that the country's economy is entering the phase of a clear slowdown – the experts of the Polish Economic Institute noted. They added that the real GDP of Ukraine in the second quarter of 2025 increased by 0.8 percent. In annual terms and 0.2 percent in quarterly terms.

In the opinion of the Institute's economists, Ukraine's key problem is the imbalance between the demand and supply for work, caused by a deficiency of employees. The real GDP of this country – as they said – accounts for 77.3 percent. level before the outbreak of the wari.e. from 2021, according to experts, perspective for subsequent years depend on the further development of events, e.g. when maintaining international support and the lack of further escalation of hostilities, growth this year. It can amount to approx. 2 percent, and in 2026 you can expect a reflection along with, among others playing production capacity.

Pie also drew attention to The disinflation process in Ukraine, which during the May summit reached 15.9 percent. Currently – as the Institute added – the inflation decrease process began, which in August amounted to 13.2 percent. rdr. According to PI, this is the result of increased supply of new agricultural products, which caused a reduction in food prices. “It also remains an important factor The restrictive monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine, which maintains the main interest rate of 15.5 percent.” – noted the institute.

He reported that the Central Bank of Ukraine provides for inflation decreases around 10 percent. By the end of this year, in order to aim to an inflation target of 5 percent. The Institute emphasized that at the same time salaries are growing, e.g. in September by 17 percent. year to year, remaining one of the factors conducive to inflationary pressure. The labor market in Ukraine remains under pressure due to mobilization and migration.

“However, the external situation remains difficult, and public finances are strongly dependent on foreign support. The European Union in August paid the fourth tranche within Ukraine Facility, worth over $ 3 billion, and the seventh tranche of credit as part of macrophinan assistance, worth $ 1 billion,” economists noted. They said that the deficit of Ukraine this year is to amount to about 22 percent. GDP, and next year's plans oscillate around 18.4 percent. GDP. Of course, the key part will be the expenditure on reinforcements and security, which will amount to about 27.2 percent. GDP.

“Consequently, a high budget deficit, dependence on international help, export restrictions through land borders and ports, and pay pressure remain a permanent element of the macroeconomic landscape” – summed up experts Pie. (PAP)

JLS/ DRAG/