Above the purpose or below? Economists expect such average annual inflation

The central forecast of average annual inflation in 2025 is 3.7 percent, in 2026 – 2.9 percent, in 2027 – 2.7 percent. – results from the September round of the NBP macroeconomic survey, the results of which the Central Bank was published on Wednesday.

“Typical scenarios of average annual inflation this year, resulting from the forecasts of experts who took part in the September survey study, between 3.5 percent and 3.9 percent, with a central forecast of 3.7 percent in the following years, experts expect to reduce average annual inflation. Typical scenarios at 2026 are between 2.4 % and 3.5 percent, and on 2027: between 2.0 percent and 3.6 percent. ” – the Polish Central Bank said in a message on the results of the September round of the NBP macroeconomic survey.

The NBP message shows that CThe Entral Forecast of average annual inflation in 2026 is 2.9 percent, and for 2027 it is 2.7 percent.

The likelihood of the formation of the average annual CPI inflation at a level not exceeding the upper limit of the deviations range from the inflationary of the NBP, determined on the basis of distribution of aggregated forecasts, is 23 percent. for 2025, 76 percent for 2026 and 73 percent for 2027 – NBP said in a communiqué.

The central bank survey shows that the central forecast of GDP growth this year is 3.4 percent, in 2026 – 3.3 percent. In 2027, analysts, which the NBP asked about forecasts, expect a decrease in growth and the central forecast is 3 percent.

“Experts of macroeconomic survey expect that this year, the average annual NBP reference rate will be between 5.07 percent and 5.22 percent (range of typical scenarios), with a central forecast equal to 5.17 percent for 2026. The limits of this range are 3.70 percent and 4.42 percent Proc – the bank informed.

Currently, the NBP reference rate is 4.75 percent. This year, the Monetary Policy Council reduced interest rates three times.

“According to the surveyed experts, the average annual price of Brent oil barrel in 2025-2027 will be at the level of approx. 67-70 USD. Experts expect that this year's exchange rate EUR/PLN will be 4.25, and in the next two years, respectively, 4.28 and 4.29”-said NBP. (PAP)

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