Poland's closing the border threatens to suspend trade between the EU and China

The decision of the Polish government to close border crossings with Belarus associated with Russian-Belarusian exercises. The collapse hit international trade, by closing the Chinese-Eventive Transport Transport of EUR 25 billion a year-writes Politico.

This trail takes place 90 percent. rail transport between China and the European Union. In 2024, the volume of loads transported by this route from China to the EU increased by 10.6 percent, and the value of goods by almost 85 percent, to EUR 25.07 billion – the portal calculates. Currently, this trail is responsible for 3.7 percent. all trade between the EU and China, and last year was 2.1 percent. It turned out to be particularly important for large Chinese online stores, such as Shein and this.

The prolonged closing of the border can also affect Polish companies. The PKP Cargo State Transport Company emphasizes that while short delays can be mastered, the prolonged closing of the border may cause south to redirect, by Kazakhstan, Caspian and black seas, and then to South Europe or Turkey. The border with Belarus was closed a week after PKP Cargo launched the first freight train transporting products from Europe on the Warsaw-China route-Politico reminded.

He referred to the assessment of Artur Kalisiak from the Association of Employers Transport and Logistics Poland, according to which “complete closing of the border is a key problem, not only for the state, but also for the entire economy.” Kalisiak emphasized that currently all goods, including medicines and food, are blocked on this route. He added that from the alternatives “you can try through Lithuania or Latvia, but of course it will take more time and money” and there is no certainty whether these borders will remain open.

According to Belsat, which Politico referred to, currently alternative supply routes appear, celebrating the closing of the Polish border – the loaded truck goes to the terminal in Kaunas, Łódź or Duisburg, where the goods are reloaded, and then goes to Lithuania to finally find Belarus from its territory.

As Politico reminded, at the Monday meeting in Warsaw the heads of Polish and China, Radosław Sikorski and Wang Yi diplomacy, and Wang Yi, it was emphasized that currently trading issues are disappearing with “security logic”. According to the portal before the meeting, China hoped that Poland would take action to “ensure safe and efficient” functioning of a railway connection on the border with Belarus and “stability of international industrial chains and deliveries.” They emphasized that China-Europe Railway Express is a “flagship project” of China's cooperation with both Poland and the EU.

China is not the only interested in the Polish border with Belarus – Politico pointed out, quoting the former head of the intelligence agency Piotr Krawczyk, who noticed that “there are still the United States”. He expressed the belief that Washington was very pleased with the closing of these routes at least temporarily, “because he presses on the European Union to introduce additional duties to China in connection with the export of Russian oil and gas to China.” He estimated that the Americans “are glad that instead of duties, the main land road for Chinese goods is now blocked for some time.”

Krawczyk is sure that “Americans (…) support the Polish government, which is not in a hurry with its re -opening, at least not in the near future.” In his opinion, Europe also participates in all this. As he noted, he did not see “any reaction on the part of any country, neither on the part of the commission or the capitals, so maybe Europe is also not dissatisfied with blocking the main trail.”

In his opinion, this may force China to choose other routes-including air or sea-and the ports in Rotterdam or Hamburg “will be happy to accept goods that can no longer cross the Polish-Belarusian border.”

Konrad Popławski from the Center for Eastern Studies cited by Politico, in turn, pointed out that for China the amounts coming into transport through the Polish border with Belarus are significant, but not groundbreaking. As he summed up, “the most important question is whether closing borders is a problem enough – not only for Belarus and Russia, but perhaps also for China – to force any wider reaction.” (PAP)

EK/ MHR/