Military exercises of the USSR organized For the first time in 1981 As many as 150,000 took part in them. soldiers. The political goal was, among others intimidating rebelling Poles, just before the imposition of martial law.
After the collapse of the USSR, Russia and Belarus resumed maneuvers in 1999. Since 2009, the exercises have been held cyclically, Every four years.
Why do this year's maneuvers raise so much concerns? When during the previous edition of the exercises-Zapad-2021-Russia focused its troops in Belaruslater used them to invade Ukraine in February 2022. Four years earlier, in 2017, Russia during maneuvers overtook the metastasis of its forces from the central and eastern part of the country to the western circuits. As noted by the Polska-zbrojna.pl portal, “many military units that went to the indicated place were found in the same points four years later, during” Zapadu-21 “”.
Maneuvers from 2025. When and where?
Exercises They start on Friday, September 12 and they are to last Until Tuesday, September 16. Officially, they are to take place mainly at the training grounds of northeastern Belarus, in centers away from the borders of Poland and Lithuaniawhich, as the Center for Eastern Studies notes, Minsk presented as a deester gesture towards his neighbors.
Most of the exercises will take place around the city of Boris in the Minsk region.
At the same time, as Kyiv Post emphasizes, “according to official statements, smaller exercises will take place nearby the Belarusian city of Hoża “which is located near the border with Lithuania and Poland, Close to the isthmus of Suwałki.
In the analysis published on September 8 OSW points out that “There are no reports about preparations and plans exercises under Zapad-2025 at Russian training grounds, especially in the Królewiec region “, which contradicts earlier information provided by the Ministry of Defense of Lithuania. In mid -August, Lithuanian Deputy Minister of Defense Tomas Godliauskas said during a press conference that Several thousand soldiers will practice in the Królewiec region.
Zapad 2025. How many soldiers?
There is no clear data on how many soldiers to take part in maneuvers. Officially, the number of exercisers does not exceed 13 thousand.
According to Lithuanian intelligence, however, this is to be about 30 thousand. soldiersof which 8,000 in Belarus (6,000 Belarusians and 2,000 Russians). According to Belarusian sources, quoted by OSW, soldiers from the elite Russian units are to practice on Belarusian land: 2 “Taman” Mechanized Division and 4 “Kantemir” Armored Division, the newly formed 71 Mechanized Division of the 14th Army Corps and probably 98 Air-Departen Division, who came to Belarus with full-time equipment in August.
On the other hand General Inspector of the German Bundeswehry Carsten Breuer He said on Monday, September 8 that 13,000 will take part in the exercises. people in Belarus and 30,000 in Russia.
What is the purpose of Zapad-2025 maneuvers?
They are officially defensive exercises, but taking into account the transition to offensive activities in the next phase of the hypothetical conflict. They are to rely on both commanding and spine projects and include activities at training grounds, also with the participation of aviation, units of rocket troops or drones.
The Minister of Defense of Belarus, Wiktor Chrenin, announced that this year's maneuvers would be devoted to planning use of the Oresznik complex and nuclear weapons. As he explained, due to the situation “on the western and northern borders”, Belarus must be “ready for everything. Exercise scenario Therefore, it provides for a nuclear war with NATO.
Gen. Leon Komornicki in an interview with Interia stated that, like Zapad-2021, he was devoted to preparation for the invasion of Ukraine, Zapad-2025 aims to practice the scenarios attack on the Baltic States. In the opinion of the military, however, aggression will not occur during these exercises. “This can happen next year, in two years,” he says.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Tuesday that this year's exercises of Russian and Belarusian soldiers are to be based on Simulation of the attack on the Suwałki isthmus.
Suwałki isthmusMichał Czernek, Adam Ziemienowicz / PAP
How do these maneuvers differ from the previous ones?
First of all – the scale. Zapad-2025 will be significantly smaller than editions from 2017 and 2021. Even if you accept the highest estimates of the troops and assume that it will take part in a total of approx. 43 thousand. soldiers, not much compared to approx. 200,000 from Zapad-2021 maneuvers.
In addition, officially the main exercises are to be carried out from the borders of NATO countries. In 2021, maneuvers took place at training grounds in the Brest region in the western part of the country, including near the border with Poland. In Russia, the area of exercise was the Western Military District.
Zapad-2021 maneuversMaciej Zieliński / PAP
Is there anything to be afraid of?
The neighbors treated this year's maneuvers of Russia and Belarus seriously. Ukraine warned against them – on August 23, her Ministry of Foreign Affairs turned to foreign partners, including with an appeal to maintain vigilance.
At midnight on Friday Poland temporarily closed all still operating border crossings with Belarus.
Lithuania closed its airspace along a part of the border with Belarus at the end of August. The ban on the movement of aircraft in the designated zone will apply at least until October 1.
For a similar step, i.e. Closing the airspace along the borders with Belarus and Russia, Latvia decided – But after a dozen or so Russian drones flew to Poland from Tuesday to Wednesday. Earlier, the defense minister Andris Spruds called on the army for increased readiness during maneuvers, including airspace, information and cyberspace.
In response to the rain-2025 Military exercises also take place in Poland and Lithuania. In Poland in maneuver “Iron Defender-25” takes part in 30,000 soldiers from Poland and allied countries. In Lithuania, 17 thousand takes part in the thunder exercises. soldiers.
According to the general inspector of the German Bundeswehr Carsten Breuer “There are no signs” that an attack on NATO is prepared under the rain-2025.
As the journalist Onet Witold Jurasz pointed out many times, and with him many other commentators, Russia currently has no strength to attack any NATO country, because she is involved in the war in Ukraine.
On the other hand, as he indicates in an interview with Onet, Witalij Portnikov, who, as a rule, has a similar opinion to Jurasz in terms of the possibility of Russia's start of war with NATO, this does not exclude taking actions that will de facto will be warfare, and at the same time will not require involving significant forces – e.g. conducting destabilizing activities by sending cheap drones to our area.
Portnikow believes that provocations during Zapad-2025 are “an absolutely real scenario”. – Since we have seen the drones of the drones against exercise, the exercises themselves can of course be used for provocation – he states.
In turn, Maciej Milczanowski from the Department of Studies on the War of the University of Rzeszów in an interview with Interia notes that we can also expect to silence enemy activities from Russia and Belarus during maneuvers, “to show what hysteria prevailed in Poland.”
According to the analysis of the Mińsk Eastern Studies Center, which for the first time before maneuvers almost completely took over the role of informing about them from Moscow, on the one hand he used de -escalational rhetoric to undermine the concerns of Western countries about the planning of aggressive military activities by Russia and Belarus, and on the other – he conducted a disinformation surgery, the purpose of which was Poland. OSW reminds of the Polish religious detention by the KGB, on the alleged accusation of espionage and obtaining classified materials with the script-2025. This was to support the thesis that Poland was preparing for the assault of the state of Russia and Belarus.
