An ugly president of everyone, a paralyzed parliament and a huge deficit: Macron's impossible choice after the fall of the last government in France

The dismissal of Prime Minister François Bayrou marks the beginning of a new period of political instability in France. The head of state, considered the main responsible for the crisis, now has fewer and fewer options to find a viable government, write Financial Times, Polito and Le Monde.

30 minutes after Francois Bayrou's government fell in Parliament on Monday night, against the backdrop of opposition to planned austerity measures, the Elysée Palace announced that Emanuel Macron will appoint a new prime minister in the coming days.

It looks like an impossible mission.

The president has few viable options to form a stable government, given that he does not hold the parliamentary majority, does not want to convene early elections, and the Parliament is currently divided into three factions that hate each other.

It is an illustration of the crisis that France is currently crossing.

During his first term, Macron called only two premiers. In the first two years of his last term, ending in 2027, he already had four.

The fifth follows.

During this time, the main problem remains. France must adopt a budget to reduce the huge deficit, and the austerity measures are extremely unpopular and do not meet sufficient support in the Parliament.

On the one hand, the unions threaten with a national general strike on September 10 and other major protests on September 18th.

On the other hand, officials are afraid that the Fitch rating agency could relegate the France's rating on September 12, last year's deficit being almost double compared to the 3% of GDP imposed by the EU, and the public debt being 113.9% of GDP.

An increasingly undesirable president

Macron is now in the center of public attention.

The popularity of the president has decreased to a minimum historical level, the surveys showing that he is more unpopular today than at the top of the protests of the yellow vests of 2018 and 2019, one of the most serious crises in his mandate.

Specifically, 77% of the French disapproves the actions of the head of state, according to an IFOP survey conducted for the daily Ouest-France.

The president still hopes for an agreement with the moderate left, the centralists and the Conservative Party Les Républicins to form a minority government that can finally reach an agreement on the budget.

The extent of Bayrou's defeat in Parliament – 364 votes in dismissal and only 194 support – and the signals from the three groups in the Legislative suggest that his efforts seem to go to a new failure.

And the radical left (unsubscribed France – LFI) and the far right (the National Assembly – RN) would prefer the dissolution of the Parliament or even the president's resignation.

Another attempt at the center?

The president could remain on the same line and again he could choose a prime minister from his own political group.

Senator François Patriaged, an old ally of the president, said he remained the most likely script, despite previous failures, writes Financial Times.

The presence of a loyalist in office could protect some of Macron's major reforms, such as the two -year growth of retirement age.

But for this strategy to work the budget for 2026 to be approved, the new prime minister should convince the socialists, the key electoral block. Bayrou has already tried this and failed.

A possible loyalist on the list is the Minister of Defense Sébastien Lecornu, who has good relationships with other party leaders, besides being very close to Macron.

There would be others – Julien Denormandie, former Minister of Agriculture, Gérald Dermanin, the current Minister of Justice, Catherine Vautrin, a conservative who now runs a ministry that supervises the issues of social assistance, health and work.

The risk of this strategy is that it could lead to the same results – another budget block or the fall of another government. Such a scenario would probably push Macron to convene anticipated elections again.

It could also strengthen the perception that the government no longer reflects the opinions of the French voters. A recent poll conducted by Elabe showed that only 6% of the respondents wanted another prime minister in Macron's group.

The left option

The different left alliance, which holds the most mandates in the current Parliament, also asked Macron to respect the voters vote and name a prime minister to represent it.

Olivier Faure, the leader of the Socialist Party, has submitted such a candidacy, announcing that once he came to office, he would introduce a wealth tax and suspend the increase of the retirement age to 64 years proposed by Macron.

The socialists have clarified that they would govern only to implement a left -handed agenda that would change Macron's policies, which they consider to be rejected by voters. And this option was rejected anticipated by Conservatives Les Républicins, who assured that they cannot support such a government.

Laurent Wauquiez, the parliamentary leader of Les Républicins, warned on Monday that his party will not support a socialist government that is too inspired by other more radical left parties.

Until Monday evening, all kinds of scenarios involving the Socialist Party were advanced.

These include a great coalition between conservatives and socialists (the least probable) and a non-aggression pact by which the Socialists would refrain from overthrowing a center-right government, but led by a left centrist, in exchange for some budgetary concessions.

There is also discussed an agreement similar to Les Républicins, by which the latter would refrain from overthrowing a left-handed government in exchange for budgetary concessions.

A conservative or technocrat

The scenario of the Conservative Prime Minister was also tested by Macron, who proposed Michel Barnier, the former EU negotiator for Brexit.

Barnier remained in office only three months before being dismissed in December due to his austerity budget. Under the leadership of Bayrou, Les Républicins continued to cooperate with the Macron government and had several ministers in office.

A new option in this regard would be Xavier Bertrand, a politician who leads the Hauts-de-France region in the north of the country, where he was a powerful opponent of RN.

Given that the main objective of the new prime minister will be the budget for 2026, Macron could also resort to a technocrat with experience in public finances.

A recent poll conducted by Elabe has shown that 39% of French voters support the idea of ​​a “apolitical” government chief.

Éric Lombard, the current Finance Minister of France, was presented as a person who can serve as a bridge to the Socialists, given that he was a member of the party.

A similar option would be Pierre Moscovici, Socialist Minister of Finance during the mandate of former President François Hollande, who currently leads the Court of Accounts.

“Well, we will have to change the president”

In the context of the early blockage, many politicians have already announced their impatience to move on to the next step.

“The president does not want to change his policies? Well, we will have to change the president,” said Mathilde Panot, the parliamentary head of the far-left party France unsupported, quoted by Politico.

It is a request made not only on the radical left, but also by the far right. Marine Le Pen's party also offered another variant, not very popular.

“The dissolution of Parliament will not be an option, but an obligation,” she said.

The problem is that the current paralysis of the Parliament was generated by an early parliamentary poll-triggered by the president after the defeat suffered in front of the extreme-right in the European Parliamentary elections.

Neither the Socialists, the Conservatives, who otherwise seem to exclude the collaboration, will not dissolve the Parliament.

The dissolution, writes Le Monde, is an adventure in which Macron does not intend to throw himself, 18 months before the presidential elections.

The macronist camp, in free fall in polls, risks coming out of the new legislative elections.

RN, on the other hand, could come out stronger, even by a majority, and no longer hides the intention to precipitate Emmanuel Macron's resignation in this scenario.