2025-09-06 19:19
publication
2025-09-06 19:19
The Iranian regime is close to falling, which means a civil war unleashed by competing for power factions – the latest report published by the British Association of Henry Jackson (HJS).
The authors of the report analyzed the numerous failures of the Iranian regime, including the overthrow of the regime of former President Syria Bashar al -Assad, the attacks of Israel in April 2024, which strongly strained his air defense ability, and almost complete annihilation of Tehran's allies – Hamas and Hesbollah, which weakened his regional influence.
This series of events was crowned with a 12-day war on June 13-24, 2025, in which Israel and the United States effectively attacked Iranian nuclear and rocket installations, and also eliminated the high-ranking of the Islamic Revolution Corps commanders (IRGC).
When rockets and bombs, the highest leader, Ayatollah Ali Chamenei fell on Iran, hidden in the bunker, he was unable to give orders, which undermined his cult of the individual, which was at the heart of the entire regime.
These defeats weakened Iran, but did not eliminate strategic threats, i.e. the export of terrorism. According to the Tehran report, it is also determined to rebuild his nuclear program.
In the event of the fall of the regime – says HJS – the worst scenario would be the consolidation of power by the Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (IRGC). Equally bad, though likely, is the creation of an independent regime of IRGC, but still authoritarian and anti -western.
To prevent this, the British Think Tank recommends, among others, to offer help to Iranian officials dissatisfied with current rule, maintaining the constant threat to the air of Israel and the USA, and to start coordinated information campaigns to counteract Tehran's propaganda.
The Henry Jackson Association is a Think Tank founded in Cambridge in Cambridge, Britain dealing with, among others, research on radicalism and terrorism in Europe, Eurasia and Russia. (PAP)
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