“The discussion about a” Ialta 2.0 “is topical”. The reserve plan for Romania and the EU, if the US and Russia beat the palm

The United States is reoriented and focused on other areas, and Europe will have to learn to do it alone. Romania will be among the most affected countries, but there are some solutions, says General (R) Alexandru Grumaz.

Nicușor Dan, Mark Rutte (right), and the Lower Countries Prime Minister, Dick Schoof. Photo: Profimedia

The United States would have informed several European countries, some of those in the first line in a conflict with Russia, that they will reduce some of the security funds, until the autumn of 2026. Tarked would be mainly the Baltic countries, beneficiaries of special assistance programs from the Pentagon, but the news can only think about Romania, including Romania. On the other hand, European allies seem to be taken by surprise by the decision, informs the Financial Times.

According to the quoted source, it would be a program of the Pentagon with an annual budget of one billion dollars, and the discounts would be the order of hundreds of millions of dollars. Even if for the moment it is about reducing financing for a program of only a few hundred million dollars, there are serious fears that this ad could be only one of a longer possible series, which would affect the American presence in Europe. In conjunction with the way in which the Russian-American relations evolves and by the friendship shown by President Donald Trump to Vladimir Putin, the news determined some international experts to discuss the risk of having a new moment, which would lead to a reference to the spheres of influence in Europe.

Where does the danger come from

“Adevărul” appeals to one of the most famous military analysts, a good connoisseur of the mentalities in Washington, General (r) Alexandru Grumaz, one of those who contributed to the integration of the Romanian army in NATO. General Alexandru Grumaz explains to what extent there may be the risk that Eastern Europe may be abandoned again, as happened in 1945 in Ialta, but what would be the solutions that Romania, the European Union and NATO would have in the case of an even more pronounced unsecured of the United States.

The general recalls that in Romania the discussion started from the statements of Cristian Diaconescu, and in a short time a real hysteria was reached, after which the theme disappeared as suddenly as it had appeared.

“At the beginning of 2025, Cristian Diaconescu-presidential counselor for security-said that, during Russian-American negotiations, Russia has requested the US withdrawal from Eastern Europe, including Romania, and recognizing an area of ​​influence in the East, a scenario compared to Yalta from 1945. 2022, that is, at the beginning of the Ukraine war, and not at a real discussion held in 2025. The US refused this request, “neither then nor now.” ECFR (European Council on Foreign Relations) compared the rhetoric and recent Washington gestures with a possible sinister recreation of the Yalta Conference, which would endanger Eastern Europe Security. “warns General Alexandru Grumaz.

Good news and bad news

Here there is a bad news and a good one, both included in a single sentence by General Alexandru Grumaz.

“Yes, the discussion about a” Ialta 2.0 “is a topical one, but more at the theoretical and warning level”, points out the general.

Further, General Alexandru Grumaz tones. Although there is no information to prove that the United States of America and the Russian Federation are ready to reach an agreement like Ialta 2, we live in a period of uncertainties, in which it has been proven that practically nothing is impossible.

“In practice: Russia would have requested the redemption of the spheres of influence in 2022, but this was rejected by the USA; there is no evidence that such a serious demand was renewed in 2025. However, the uncertainties of the external policies of the United States of America, especially in the context of Pro-Rusia rhetoric from certain American political circles, creates a state of tension and vulnerability in Europe including in Romania“Adds General Alexandru Grumaz.

What is to be done

The question is what NATO and the EU do to “close” the scenario of a “new one”? All General Alexandru Grumaz has the word.

“We have new regional plans starting with the NATO summit in Vilnius 2023, plans that lead to the transition to” forward defense “with forces at the body/army level, preposition, short mobilization times. Defense Production Action Plan (updated in 2025) means aggregation request, co-productions and standardization, not only the objective, and the objective It is, in addition. Dedicated, which will give a serious impulse for the production of ammunition and equipment in the EU. explains the general.

In addition, the allies did not stay at endless discussions, but also pointed out. “We have the use of profits from frozen Russian assets, an EU decision of May 21, 2024, then installments for Ukraine in 2024–2025 and the preparation of the G7/was $ 50 billion. The industrial capacity will be the opening of the opening of ammunition factories, and here we have for example the new Rheinmetall complex, and the increase of ammunition production of 155 mm ”adds the general.

The ball is definitely in the NATO field, General Alexandru Grumaz believes. As long as the North Atlantic Alliance will show unity and firmness, the Russian Federation will not have to attack any NATO state, the general considers. This means discouraging enemy potential to make it avoid any military confrontation. And this is the guarantee that Europe will never endure an Ialta 2.0.

“As long as NATO remains coherent and present on the eastern flank,” Ialta 2.0 “is unlikely: the new plans, the budget growth and the integration of the Nordics increase the cost of any Russian adventure.”points out the general.

Vulnerabilities to be corrected

Until then, he also identifies some Vulnerabilities of NATO and the EU, which should be thought.

“The risk window appears from three vulnerabilities: a major reduction in US involvement, European industrial delays (in the production of ammunition, AA/ABM defense and internal political fractures. Here I would give the debates and problems with Slovakia and Hungary) ””he shows.

Europe will be safe as long as it proves seriousness and firmness.

“The trend is favorable to Europe, but it must be supported: more ambitious targets (3.5%), common production, dual-use military infrastructure and real interoperability“Believe General Grumaz.

What can Romania do

Regarding the situation of Romania strictly, the authorities can and are obliged to take a series of measures to ensure the security of the country.

“What would Romania help, concrete? 100% execution of the budget of 2.5% (not just announcement), with priority on “integrated anti-aircraft and missile defense” (IAMD), that is to continue the purchases of Patriot systems, Mamba + Sensors), the provision of ammunition and repairs and maintenance for the army not lastly, it is necessary to accelerate the acquisition process for the F-35 aircraft, tracks, intelligent ammunition), synchronized with NATO regional plans. And it will be important to have the role of “hub” at the Black Sea. Finally, equally important, it is necessary to strengthen the NATO brigade in Romania, to ensure military mobility (bridges, ports, railways), maritime surveillance, as well as industrial partnerships with the European Union and NATO ”, General Alexandru Grumaz concludes.

Who is General Grumaz

General (r) Alexandru Grumaz is a graduate of the US Defense University with the title of Master in the Strategy of Defense Resources and the Senior Executives Program in National and International Security, John F Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

General Alexandru Grumaz

Formerly the general consul of Romania in Shanghai, the general occupied important positions in the Ministry of National Defense as head of the Directorate for Resources for Defense, director of the Directorate of Integrated Defense Planning or Inspector for Armaments. Grumaz held the position of first deputy of the director of STS, being a telecommunications specialist.

It has an expertise in strategic planning, in international military and civil relations and experience in the complex planning and management of the budget of an organization. He is a good connoisseur of political and military life in China and the United States where he has spent some of his military and diplomatic career. He is currently the president of the Center for Analysis and Security Studies.