What chances do Ukraine still have to win the war with Russia. The categorical response of a military general general

The Russian Federation has the initiative on the Ukrainian front, but Moscow's troops have not touched their targets so far. General (r) Adriean Pârlog, former head of the Military Intelligence Directorate, analyzes, for “Truth”, the chances of Ukraine win this difficult war.

War from Ukraine has entered a new stage. Buildings destroyed in Kyiv. Photo: Profimedia

On February 22, 2022, the Russians invaded Ukraine, and in this way they unleashed what in Moscow is called “special military operation”, but in the whole world it is perceived as a war. The objective of the Russian Federation was to change the Kiev regime with a puppet, but the plans designed by Russian strategies have proved unrealistic.

Although the Russian tanks then reached the suburbs of Kiev, the Ukrainian elite forces managed, with a superhuman effort, to reject their enemy. What followed is known. Too little and insufficiently prepared, the Russian troops withdrew chaotic, given that the Russian secret services believed that they would be met with flowers and bread by locals.

Dramatism to the highest odds in Ukraine

Even so, at present the Russian Federation owns almost 20% of the territory of Ukraine, and its troops advance with small but safe steps. Despite the heroic resistance of the Ukrainians, the Russians still have the initiative, and important military and geopolitics from all over the world, not affiliated with state actors or interest groups, admitted that Kiev will have an impossible mission to recover their already lost territories.

Even the former commander of the Ukrainian army, Valeri Zlujnîi, currently Ukraine's ambassador to London, has recognized and told a conference that Ukraine can no longer restore the borders before 2014 and should give up this idea. Zălujnîi is the general who managed at the beginning of the war to reject the Russian assault on Kiev, and in the summer of 2022 he achieved the only successful counter -offensive, who gave back the Russian troops with several kilometers. Subsequently, due to divergences, he was replaced by the army by President Zelenski, passed on the dead line and sent ambassador to London.

“I hope there are no people in this room who still hopes for a miracle or a lucky sign to bring peace to Ukraine, the borders of 1991 or 2022 and that there will be great happiness. My personal opinion is that the enemy still has resources, forces and means to launch attacks on our territory and to try offensive operations.“, Zlujnîi said in Kiev, according to the news site RBK Ukraine, quoted by News.ro.

What chances do the Ukrainians have

Former head of the Directorate Military Intelligence and Representative of Romania in Norway, General (r) Adriean Pârlog explains, for “Adevărul”, to what extent Zălujnîi is right and why for Ukrainians there is not necessarily the best perspectives. On the other hand, Adriean Pârlog is of the opinion that no serious expert can hurry to say at this time with certainty that Ukraine has already lost the war, as it cannot be said about the Russians.

“Honestly, I do not realize how Ukraine could return to control, in possession of the 20% of the national territory, in the conditions in which it is difficult for me to believe that the Russians will accept to pass as the perdenti of what they call a special military operation. The Russians still have a huge growth resource. The Ukrainians, it is known, can not even keep the human resource, does not help the demographic.says the general.

On the other hand, Ukraine is not yet defeated, as some military analysts suggest or even say it.

General (r) Adriean Pârlog

“No, they are not yet defeated Ukrainians. I am also a cyber graduate and only impossible events can enjoy this qualification given by some, those who say that the Ukrainians will lose 100%. There is still the chance for Ukrainians to defeat, but it is very low the probability coefficient attached to this event. And we hope, to the victory of Ukraine.”, Explains the Romanian general.

The light at the end of the tunnel is not seen

The end of the war is not yet easy to see and it is possible that hostilities may take long.

“I do not see that things at the moment would evolve to that end states, as many say, to that final state of the current conflict area. Until we get there, it should be clarified what the concept of security insurance offered to Ukraine. And which Ukraine? Ukraine existing in the borders that the dissolution of the USSR We look at the famous map that will have a new border somewhere close, unacceptable to the Dnieper.points out the general.

There are other details that will count enormously, but which have not yet been clarified.

“It is still unclear how the international military presence will materialize on the territory of Ukraine. Which part of Ukraine? Some of the Europeans say they will not send troops, among them we are, that is, our president, the prime minister said that we will not have Romanian military in Ukraine, but we will support Ukraine as much as we can do. Military on the Ukrainian territory, but in no case very close to the current contact area.says the general.

A changing world

Globally, the situation is just as uncertain, but, says General Adriean Pârlog, it becomes more obvious that there will be some important changes. The United States, China and Russia have the main arguments, but neither the European Union gives up its arguments.

“The dialogue of these three greats is also outlined at the moment when I believe that the perspective of a multicentric world, as the Chinese say, a multipolar world, as Europeans say, is closer than the perpetuation of the world with a single super state capable of ensuring global stability,” considers General Adriean Pârlog.

Who is General Adriean Pârlog

Adriean Pârlog is General Maior (R) and was deputy of the Directorate of Military Intelligence in Romania and attached to Defense, Military, Aero and Naval in the Kingdom of Norway.

He is the author of over 10 scientific communications published in volumes of national scientific events; 49 articles published in specialized magazines; 12 research and development projects; 24 sets of specialized lessons; 6 books; 25 complex specialized applications or exercises. Among the scientific concerns we can list the following book titles: “Information production”, “Methods and techniques of information analysis”, “Defense information activity”. He attended NATO courses, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California; Center for Defense Studies and King 'S College London, UK; Harvard University/John F.Kennedy School of Government, Boston. The general also has a MBA in Economic Informatics and Cybernetics.

Currently, General Adriean Pârlog is president of SC Integrated Corporate Security Services SRL (ICSS) and offers courses for vocational training in the fields for business and corporate security. Adriean Pârlog is also an associate professor at three top universities in Romania. He teaches at Babeș-Bolyai University in Cluj-Napoca, at the Academy of Economic Studies in Bucharest and at Lucian Blaga University in Sibiu.