“The worst is just ahead of us.” Retail sellers from the US are afraid of the effects of customs
There is also legal uncertainty in the background, because at the end of August the American Court of Appeal by a majority of 7-4 found that the wide package of the president's global duties was largely imposed unlawfully, but At the same time, he left them in force until the Supreme Court was dismissed. For sellers and consumers, this means months suspended – with real increases here and now and the risk of further changes.
This can already be seen in the hard numbers. Walmart signals that as soon as it complements the supplies at “tariff” prices, the costs of weeks climb – and that this pressure will drag on the third and fourth quarter of the financial year. This is an elegant description of a difficult choice: How much to take this pressure to the margin, and how much to transfer to price labels and consumers. Target and Best Buy also talk about adding some costs to prices, especially in home appliances and electronics.
Food and drinks react the most sharply
Owner Marek Folgers, Dunkin 'and Café Bustelo – JM Smucker – announces further coffee increases (on average about 25 percent this year fiscal), because the profits in this segment ate duties and more expensive raw materials. In the last quarter, the company raised the costs of producing by 23 percent. year on year And she did not achieve the expectations of analysts.
The meat giant hormel (spam, skippy) openly talks about “a steep increase in the costs of raw materials” – from beef and pork to nuts. The company did not gain profits, and the exchange rate dropped rapidly after a message about weaker profitability. The company announces price corrections to recover margins. It is a signal that Even the most mass categories will have difficulty to neutralize customs in their P&L.
Households do not remain passive. The August reading of the mood index of the Michigan University fell by nearly 6 percent. compared to July and over 14 percent year on year. Short -term inflation expectations increased to 4.8 percent. (from 4.5 percent a month earlier), and the conditions for purchasing permanent goods were bursting to the lowest level for a year. This explicitly translates into elections at the checkout.
The market is observing an increasingly pronounced “K -shaped economy”
As Tom Essaye from Sevens Report Research put it, the upper class still drives expenses when the lower income is compressed by inflation and customs. Effect? Poor farms give up some shopping or descend the shelf belowand even wealthier customers are selectively looking for opportunities.
Whirlpool sees “mixing baskets” towards cheaper household appliances models, and Procter & Gamble records a moderate drop in basket – e.g. a larger selection of cheaper detergents.
It burns demand in discount stores and retailers. Dollar General raised forecasts for 2025, pointing to the influx of customers looking for cheaper basic products and admitting that part of the prices already contains the impact of customs. More than North America, shares of off-price are growing throughout North America, from Ross/TJX to Dollar Tree-to The effect of hunting consumer for branded occasions and retreat from more expensive channels.
In this picture, however, the most important thing is what is happening in the back room. Retail networks today accept deliveries bought after adding duties – they will define the price lists in autumn and winter. Walmart says directly: “We keep prices as low as we can, as long as we can”, but when the new goods enter the warehouses more than a week after a week, the bill must finally balance.
We are waiting for court decisions
If the Supreme Court at the turn of autumn and winter maintains the lock of the verdict of the appeal, the duties will stay and the detail will be forced to further calculate increases. If it withdraws them, the prices will not fall day by day – sellers will first sell more expensive parties. In both scenarios, the customer will not feel relief in a short time.
For Polish companies trading from the USA and suppliers to the American market, the moral is similar: plan conservative margins for the Christmas season, secure courses and delivery conditions, and in price policy, leave space for quick tests and promotions. The consumer in the USA is still buying, but It is more alert, prone to substitution and hunting for value – this forces the flexibility of the offer and communication.
As a veteran of the Mickey Drexler industry put it: “If someone claims to know the answers, let them call me” – in the current environment he still plays in movable sand.
