2025-09-01 10:25
publication
2025-09-01 10:25
The beginning of the month on the currency market we start with the weakening of the dollar in relation to the euro. However, the euro exchange rate relative to Polish zloty remained without major changes. The end of the week can bring more volatility.
On Monday at 10:20 the euro exchange rate was PLN 4.2588, so just like before the weekend. It is also around the middle of the consolidation range, in which the EUR/PLN exchange rate remains from April. We are talking about the band 4.20-4.30 PLN, with the vast majority of this period of the euro period they moved in a fairly narrow range of PLN 4,23-4.28.
– We assess that the next few days will be calm on the native currency. We still expect EUR/PLN to maintain in the 4.26-4.28 range. The argument for testing the upper limitation of this range of variability may be pigeon message from the MPC – wrote in the morning report analysts Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego.
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On Wednesday, we will know the decision of the Monetary Policy Council, after which the market consensus expects to reduce the NBP interest rates by 25 PB. But there is even a quiet talk about cutting the government of 50 pb., Which, however, would be a surprise for most market participants. On Thursday afternoon there is a press conference of the President of NBP Adam Glapiński. They are potentially events that can cause greater variability on the zloty market.
Globally, however, this publication will be only the Friday report from the American labor market. If the data falls pale again, the Fed will probably resume the cycle of interest rate reductions at the beginning of the year. And it will cut both for the rest of this and most next year – at least this is the result of an analysis of the positions occupied on the market for timely contracts.
Meanwhile, on Monday in the morning, the Euro-Dolar pair was listed after USD 1.1716. Therefore, we are observing another attempt to approach the July peak (1,1829), the puncture of which would open the road to a round level of USD 1.20. As a result, the dollar was cheaper by 1.1 grosze, reaching a price of PLN 3.6330. The dollar-gold steam is a zone of PLN 3.58-3.60, where this year's wave of dollar depreciation stopped.
The Swiss Frank was valued at PLN 4,547, which is less than a penny lower than Friday evening. Therefore, it is a correction of the strengthening of the Helwecka currency observed last week, which in steam with Polish gold was close to testing the upper restriction in force since April.
The British pound cost PLN 4.9160, so 0.8 grosze less than before the weekend. In this way, the GBP/PLN exchange rate approached this year's minimum (PLN 4.85) designated at the end of July. Szterling was the weakest in 4 years.
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