On Friday, the mood was cooled by technology. Dell fell by less than 9 percent. After publishing the results and more careful comments about margins in the AI server segmentand Marvell Technology burst by about 17–19 percent. After the forecasts that disappointed the market. Nvidia weakened after a series of reports and comments about sales uncertainty to China, which in combination with fatigue around the AI sector downloaded a wide market below.
Macro data did not surprise, but prompted to calculate. The July PCE (Personal Consumction Expenditital – measure of inflation in the USA showing how the prices of goods and services bought by households change) increased by 2.6 percent. y/y, and basic (after switching off food and energy) by 2.9 percent R/R – according to consensus. This maintains the scenario in which the federal reserve can lower the feet in September, especially after Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, where he drew attention to the growing risks for the labor market.
Check also: Passive income PLN 3,000 per month from ETFs. Dividend plan and ready wallets
The balance of the month still favors Hossie. Thursday brought the historical closing of the S&P 500 at 6501.86 points, and the statistics, which is recalled by, among others Cfra, he says that if the index records at least 20 historical closures by the end of August, then in about 90 percent. cases, the year ends higher, on average about 5.5 percent
The August rally was not only focusing on the largest companies. The index of small Russell 2000 companies increased by nearly 7 percent in a month, using the expectations of lower financing costs.
Special offer
August also abounded in political and regulatory events, which markets, for now, digest without major fluctuations. Donald Trump's administration has implemented further duties modificationswith the dates of entry into force in the first half of August, and in the background there is a dispute about an attempt to dismiss a member of the Fed Governors Council, Lisy Cook – the federal judge listened to the arguments of the parties on Friday, but without the decision. These elements increase the uncertainty around the independence of the Fed, but so far they have not precipitated the market from the trend.
Read also: Monthly passive income from the stock exchange better than renting apartments? Three dividend wallets to choose from
Great gold results
Gold recorded the best month from April – about +4.5 -4.7 percent. In August and nearly +1 percent On Friday, using the weaker dollar and waiting for the foot reduction. This is a classic escape to a safe marina when monetary policy becomes the main driver of valuations.
Seasonality, however, is not conducive to euphoria. September can be the weakest month for action -on average about -0.7 percent For the S&P 500 in the cross -section of the last 75 years – and this time an additional test will be August data from the labor market (publication on Friday, September 5) and CPI inflation for August (Wednesday, September 11).
Sensitivity to Fed messages and headers around the duties or independence of the central bank will remain high, and the recent breath in “trade on AI” reminds that Expectations for technology are already very high.
Note: The valuations included in the text are only informative and do not constitute a recommendation for the purchase or sale of financial products.
