Macron allies in amok. French Prime Minister's portfolio like a clock bomb

What about the next early elections? If Macron convens them, the political landscape may get stuck in exactly the same impasse – But responsibility will fall in a more evident way to him, not the prime minister. And all this time financial markets will be lacking in patience when it comes to France's ability to order with their accounting books. In general, the state of shock overwhelms officials, helpers and advisers from various parties who support the minority government of France.

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– This is a heavy blow to the president – says the political adviser of one of the ministers, who, like other interlocutors, admitted anonymity so that he can honestly talk about political chaos. He notes that The day of mass protests, a potentially paralyzing country, is to take place just two days after the expected dismissal of Bayrou. – Political crisis September 8, social crisis on September 10. It's a crisis of power, right? – he notes.

A new prime minister with a suicide mission

Macron sinking centralists apparently grab the razors. The first signals flowing from the Elysee Palace seemed to indicate that The president does not consider the solution to the parliament and the submission of subsequent elections. It is believed that Macron thinks rather about entrusting the managing of the young, center -right Minister Sebastien Lecorn. A person close to Macron reveals that also the Minister of Justice Gerald Darmanin, who has long dreamed of the position of prime minister, is a candidate, but he does not want to receive a mission that seems suicidal.

Both Lecorn and Darmanin derive from the Conservative Party Republicans, and they have been associated with Macron since 2017. He is closer to the president, and Macron has almost nominated him once before Bayrou imposed on the prime minister. He is considered more submissive, while Darmanin is very ambitious and more independent. A person around Lecorn says that the 39-year-old privately boasts special relations with the far-right national union of Marine Le Pen, while insisting that he could direct the coalition government with both the right and the left.

But will this report from Zn help him succeed at the bloody budget arena, where both Bayrou and former Prime Minister Michel Barnier failed? Many centrors say not: There is no indication that Le Pen or socialists intend to support him more definitely than Bayrou. “There is no scenario, no new cast selection that could solve the crisis,” said the ministerial advisor.

For conservative republicans supporting the minority government of Bayrou, suggestion of Lecorn is another example of the unwavering optimistic behavior of the president who does not want to allow himself to think about failure. Macron himself was to try to underestimate the crisis during the Wednesday meeting of the Council of Ministers.— Nie jest w stanie nie spróbować odzyskać kontroli — mówi przygnębiony członek Republikanów. – This is his natural tendency.

Gerald Darmanin, Minister of Justice, and Sebastien Lecorn, Minister of the Armed Forces. Paris, January 3, 2025EPA / Christophe Petit Tesson / PAP

Even technocratic government of experts that would solve a budget mess – Which sounds rather like a play in an Italian style – he would have to navigate the heavily quarreled National Assembly, full of deputies who think about key local elections next year and the presidential election in 2027.

Elections that could only deepen the political crisis

Sending the French back to the electoral urns, however, also brings with it a separate risk to the president worrying about his heritage. After all, it is an unexpected accelerated election last summer They led France to the current deadlock and irreversibly hurt Macron's reputation.

The polls show that in the coming weeks or months the votes of voters could again result in parliament without most. – The worst solution is to him [Zgromadzenia Narodowego]that will not work, because then he will be at the outlet – another government adviser tells us.

This does not mean, however, that this is impossible. Before Monday, Macron has repeatedly excluded the release of new elections before the end of his term, but The Elysee Palace claims that he would not deprive himself of this constitutional right. “Mystery is part of the presidential strategy,” explains Macron's close associate.

Prime Minister Bayrou as president?

Meanwhile, the Bayrou camp still cannot believe how quickly his fate was sealed by opposition deputies, especially the extreme right, and is trying to convince people that the situation is under control.

Prime Minister Francois Bayrou talks to journalists at agricultural fair. Chalons-EN-Champagne, August 29, 2025PAP/EPA/Christophe Petit Tesson

One of the prime minister's surroundings says that he hopes that Le Pen and the National Union will again consider their position after 48 hours. The hope is that the Bayrou team could do a dirty job involving the balance of the French budget before 2027, while avoiding the danger of parliamentary elections in which Le Pen could not start due to its judgment for embezzlement.

For now, Bayrou seems to be a battle before the public opinion, giving a number of speeches and interviews In the hope that he will leave the Matignon Palace, the prime minister's residence, with his head raised. It looks like a strategy before the election campaign in 2027, and Bayrou has long aimed at the Elysee Palace. “At least he would deserve recognition as a presidential candidate,” said one of Macron's supporters.