Ukrainians destroy refineries, there is a lack of fuel in Russia. “How many Russians can still withstand?”
Ukrainian drones destroy large refineries in various parts of Russia, and the August scale of this offensive raises impression. We are talking about 15 attacks on 13 facilities (including e.g. a large UP-Bąt fuel port), where the farthest hit was recorded 1700 km from Ukraine, in the Republic of Komi.
Moscow Times journalists resemble, among others On one of the most spectacular attacks – on August 21, the only refinery operating in the Rostov region, taking first place in terms of fuel supply in south of Russia, caught up. Over 400 people were involved in extinguishing the fire, but for several days the flames could not be extinguished.
Ukrainians destroy refineries. The Russians talk about “unplanned repairs”
In Russian newspapers, similar situations in refineries are sometimes called “unplanned repairs”, but journalists do not state that they are connected with Ukrainian attacks. Such information was provided by BBC news journalist Steve Rosenberg, who analyzes the Russian press on an ongoing basis.
But even Russian media say louder and louder that there is a problem with buying fuel in the country. We are talking about kilometer queues to distributors (e.g. in Crimea) and that in some parts of Russia many fuel stations have been closed. In some places, gas can only be obtained for cards and it is not sold to private people, but to organizations. Gasoline, if available for purchase, is of course more expensive than a month, two ago, before the intensification of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.
Gasoline deficiencies in Russia. Two variants
The August Ukrainian attacks seem to be part of a specific strategy, which is to significantly weaken the Russian economy. At the moment, looking at reports from Russia, the plan of Ukrainians is implemented one hundred percent.
A very difficult situation is in the Kuril Islands, where the limit of buying 10 liters of gasoline per person was introduced first, and in recent days, the sale of A-95 gasoline has been completely suspended.
Continued article under video material
The British The Guardian writes that the greatest fuel deficiencies are felt “in the Far East, the south of Russia and the annexed Crimean Peninsula, where drivers were forced to switch to more expensive fuel species due to deficiencies of ordinary A-95 gasoline.”
In some Russian newspapers, it blows with optimism. Journalists argue that the crisis should end in September, because then “repairs in refineries” will end. There are also opinions that current problems in Russia are temporary, because they result from greater fuel demand during the holiday season.
Western equipment at a premium. Russians have a problem
However, there are statements of experts (Rosenberg found them in the Russian press), which shows that the crisis on the fuel market in Russia can be mastered, among others by increasing the safety of the refinery and lifting the sanctions to Russia.
And in the current situation, western sanctions can be particularly toll on the Russians – most new refineries in Russia (up to 80 percent) were made according to American or European technology using Western infrastructure equipment. By current sanctions, it is not possible to replace these parts – tells Onet Łukasz Wojdyga, director of the Warsaw Enterprise Institute Strategic Studies.
– Of course, the Russians are trying to replace this equipment with their own parts or Chinese. The problem is that they often do not quite match Western technologies. And the quality of this equipment, especially Chinese is much lower – he adds.
Ordinary Russians, army or export. What will Putin choose?
There is also a matter of how the current fuel crisis will affect the Russian army. – It is difficult to talk about specific numbers here, because it is secret military data. But in 2023 information appeared that 6 percent monthly production of all Russian refineries goes for the needs of the army. This is a large number, and now this indicator can be even higher – notes Wojdyga.
– It is said that Ukrainian attacks caused a decrease in the production of Russian refinery from 14 to 17 percent. This is a lot, considering the needs of the internal market, the army in Ukraine, as well as oil exports – says the analyst.
The Russian power is therefore in a dot and must decide where and to whom to limit the supplies. – This is of course a political decision. Power must balance between the fulfillment of the needs of the internal market, army and exports. Of course, it may turn out that ordinary Russians will be injured. But the question is how much Russians can still withstand? It seems that there is a barrier to endurance and in Russia there may be some discouragement – he believes.
Russian analyst Konstantin Eggert in a recent conversation with Onet said: – The Russians will turn away from this war only if their private interests are heavily torn.
