From the Ministry of Finance published on the website of the Ministry of Finance, we learn that the basic quantities of the state budget in 2026 are as follows:
This means that the planned budget deficit will amount to no more than PLN 271.7 billion.
The ministry also points out that “”The level of revenues of the state budget in 2026 will be determined by the macroeconomic situation, planned system changes and actions aimed at strengthening the income party by improving broadly understood tax collection and reducing the gray zone “.
Higher revenues from CIT and VAT in 2026.
Influences with CIT tax is forecast for PLN 80.4 billion. This amount, according to the Ministry of Finance, takes into account the increase in the rate for the banking sector, which is to bring significant fiscal benefits.
In turn, with VAT tax is to obtain as much as PLN 341.5 billion. The presented value, as we read, takes into account two significant issues.
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The first of them is the assumption that next year we will record an increase in private consumption of 6.4 percent, which is also to translate into a positive dynamics of income from this source.
The second issue is the system changes that await us. The Ministry of Finance here lists the increase in the subject exemption limit from tax from 200,000. PLN for 240 thousand PLN and the entry into force of KSEF.
The government also plans to introduce system changes related to PIT tax. The forecasted income from this tax is PLN 32 billion.
Polish budget in 2026. Reflections of excise duty
In the near future we will have a number of excise duty increases, which will coninitely translate into budget revenues.
The Ministry of Finance estimates that Revenues in this respect will amount to PLN 103.3 billion next year. This amount includes an increase of 15 percent. Ethyl alcohol rates, beer, wine, fermented drinks and intermediate products.
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The ministry also reminds that from January 1, 2026, increased amounts of excise duty rates for: 20%, smoking tobacco by 30%, innovative products by 20%will apply. (compared to the level of rates from 2025). 20 % excise duty rates and cigarillos will be increased. and for electronic cigarettes by 50 percent in relation to the rates in force in 2025.
Public debt in the draft budget act for 2026.
In the prepared draft of the Budget Act for 2026, the Ministry of Finance, with the assumptions adopted, assumes that the expected relationship of state public debt to GDP will be 48.9 percent in 2025, and then increase to 53.8 percent in 2026, remaining below the caution threshold 55 percent specified in the Public Finance Act.
The expected relation to the GDP of the debt of the government and local government institutions (according to the EU definition) will amount to 60.4 percent. At the end of 2025 and 66.8 percent At the end of 2026
“The formation of public debt in 2025-2026 will be mainly the result of financing the net loan needs of the state budget, in particular related to the implementation of the KPO loan parts (including 2.8 percent of GDP in 2026) and defense expenditure” – reads in the development of MF.
