2025-12-24 09:30
publication
2025-12-24 09:30
Low fertility in Sweden threatens the welfare state system – according to the first part of the experts' report on the problem of declining birth rates, presented on Wednesday. The analysis entitled “The Silent Crisis” was commissioned by the government in Stockholm.
According to the co-author of the study, Asa Hansson, an economist from Lund University, in the worst-case scenario, the country's population may decrease by 4 million by 2100 and the GDP may shrink by more than half.
Currently, Sweden's population is just over 10 million people. In 2024, 1.43 children were born per woman, which was the lowest since such statistics began. The fertility rate of Swedish women has been systematically decreasing since 2010.
Minister for Social Affairs Jakob Forssmed reminded that to ensure sustainable development of society, there should be 2.1 children per woman.
Technological progress may mitigate the negative effects, but it is unlikely to fully compensate for the decline in population and the number of people of working age – we read in the conclusions.
Similarly, experts doubt that migration will solve the demographic problem. “In the face of global population decline, it will be more difficult to attract immigrants,” the report noted.
Scientists have pointed out that measures such as extended parental leave, child benefits and subsidized preschool care, although they have a positive impact on population development, have a limited effect. “The future will require more decisive measures (…), and treat children as investments” – noted.
In the subsequent parts of the report, experts will propose specific solutions to improve the demographic situation. The next part is expected to be published in January 2026.
From Stockholm Daniel Zyśk (PAP)
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