Trump advises Ukraine to go to the offensive. The new weapon can facilitate a breakthrough. “It would paralyze the occupiers”
On Thursday, August 21, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform: “It is very difficult, if it is not impossible, it is to win a war without an attack on the country of the invaders.” He compared the situation on the front to sport, in which even a team with a fantastic defense has no chance of winning if they can't attack.
Suddenly, Trump seems to leave the pursuit of a truce at all costs. On the contrary – he advises Ukraine so that it does not limit itself to defense, but attacked Russia.
Donald Trump has not managed to fulfill his election promise regarding peace in Ukraine from the moment of taking office. As the British daily The Guardian, the American president disappointed with Putin, who is not about peace, wants to withdraw from peace negotiations.
Zelanski gratefully accepted this indirect call to attack Russia.
“The President of the United States is absolutely right,” he said in response. In his opinion, Ukraine must break out of the constant defensive and go to the offensive by itself, because Putin “does not understand anything but strength and pressure.” “This war must end, we must put pressure on Russia,” added Zelanski.
If before the peaks with Putin in Alaska and Zelnski and European leaders in Washington, the hope of peace was still smoldering, then the optimism has now disappeared. Both the Russian and Ukrainian sides intensified attacks.
“It's much further than Moscow from Ukraine”
It should be assumed that Ukraine will follow Trump's advice and intensify the attacks on Russia. To this end, he will probably use a new weapon developed in just nine months – a flamingo maneuvering shell.
Behind this innocent name is a controlled rocket, which can carry a head of 1 thousand. 150 kg at a distance of up to 3,000 km. It is much further than Moscow from Ukraine. Serial production has just started. Soon 200 pieces will be produced per month.
However, Ukraine alone will not win the war. Kyiv is still dependent on foreign help.
– Ukrainians need primarily spare parts, ammunition and heavy equipment – believes Marcel Berni, strategy expert at the Military Academy at the Federal University of Technology in Zurich. The United States agreed to sell weapons to Europe. Then the armament will be handed over to Ukraine.
Equally important are the information of the American intelligence services and images of situations that allow you to precisely direct Ukrainian rockets to the goal. It is not known, however, whether Trump will continue to share this information.
Ukraine's biggest problem is the lack of staff. To increase the number of the army, further reduction of the conscript age is considering, which has recently been reduced from 27 to 25 years.
“The attack would have to be surprised”
On the front, the situation of Ukraine now looks rather bad. Klemens Fischer, a professor of international relations and geopolitics at the University of Cologne, says: “On the one hand, Ukraine on the front is attached to the wall and barely maintains positions, on the other hand, Russia gathers huge offensive forces in Zaporozhye. So it does not seem to be the right time for the Ukrainian land control.”
Nevertheless, Ukraine has a strategic opportunity to task the opponent of huge losses – as it did a year ago during obtaining the territory in the Russian Kurski region or during a coordinated drone attack on Russian airlines, which took place on June 1. This tactic is a element of surprise.
Ukrainian soldier in Sudza in the Russian Kursk region, September 23, 2024 (illustrative photos)
– The attack would have to be surprised. The most effective would be if it was asymmetrical, using surprising technological innovations, and at the same time conducted at various levels, such as air, land and cyberspace. This would paralyze the occupiers – says Marcel Berni from the Military Academy at the Federal University of Technology in Zurich.
According to the former national security advisor, Trump, John R. Bolton, Putin's goal is to restore the Russian Empire. “That's why he wants to somehow incorporate the whole of Ukraine in Russia in some way,” Bolton said in an interview with “Blick”.
For now, the war will probably go on as before.
– Russia is seen on the winners' side. He will continue to use his numerical and strategic persistence – says expert Marcel Berni.
Putin will agree to negotiations just to calm Trump and avoid painful sanctions.
– It is possible that one of the parties will succumb to someday. But at the moment we are not at this point yet – adds the analyst.
