Reflection of banks after a tax blow. The scale of damage is still large


The WIG-Banki index on Monday, just after opening the session, grew by almost 1.7 percent. and reached 17,500 points. At that time, WIG20, i.e. the portfolio of the largest and most liquid companies, gained 0.5 percent. and reached 2895 points
The reflection of banks' quotations, however, is small, taking into account the scale of the discount from Friday, August 22. Then Wig-Banki collapsed by 10.1 percent. And he descended to 17258 points, i.e. the lowest level from July 23. On Friday, the capitalization of Polish banks fell by PLN 35.5 billion, of which only PKO BP and Pekao, two biggest players (and controlled by the State Treasury) lost PLN 12.8 billion and PLN 6.3 billion, respectively).
On Friday, investors sold out shares of banks after information that the Ministry of Finance is planning to raise taxes to creditors. It was reported that CIT was to go up to 30 percent. In 2026, of the present 19 percent, the next year the rate is to fall to 27 percent, and later stabilize at 23 percent. The government wants this way patch a gigantic budget hole, At the same time, avoid unpopular cutting of social expenses. At the same time, the so -called Banking tax (charged on bank assets, i.e. the tribute introduced in 2016) is to be reduced in 2027 by 10 %, and in 2028 by 20 percent. (towards the current state).
The Ministry of Finance estimates that increasing the CIT rate for banks will increase CIT revenues in 2026 by approx. PLN 6.5 billionand in a total of 10 years it is to bring the budget over PLN 20 billion. The Polish Bank Association estimated that next year the cost of banks on higher taxation will exceed PLN 7 billion.
“It is very difficult today to predict how the session in Poland will go – we are unlikely to expect the sale of banks to be immediately continued, at least natural relief seems natural,” Kamil Cisowski, director of the Di Xelion investment analysis and investment consulting team wrote in the morning commentary on Monday.
“Still, we won't be surprised if it turns out that on Friday we were dealing with a symbolic ending of the Outperformance WIG20 period against the background of the world this year, and the government's actions will prompt foreign investors to make more profits.




