Tax banks' slaughter. The worst stock market session since April

One message from the Ministry of Finance was enough to lead to a powerful discount of bank shares and cause the deepest drops to the WSE since the time of customs panic from early April.

PKO BP shares were overestimated by 12.2%on Friday, the Pekao exchange rate dived by 11.2%, and Alior Bank's quotations dropped by 9.3%. In the case of Santander Polska, mBank, commercial or ING Bank Śląski, the discount reached 6-8%. The WIG-Banki index recorded a decrease by over 10%.

All this after one message from the Ministry of Finance, which from next year wants to cover the banking sector with a taxable. The Ministry of Finance has announced plans to raise CIT for banks from 19% to 30% in 2026 and 26% a year later. From 2028, the CIT rate for banks would be permanently raised to 23%. This reduces the expected next year's bank profits by approx. 15% and deprives investors of up to PLN 20 billion in bank profits in the next 10 years.

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From the beginning of 2025, it was Banks who was one of the main driving forces of bull market on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. From January to the recent August record, the WIG-Banki index has grown by 61%. A tax hit on banks can therefore end the stock market bull market and will certainly reduce confidence in the Polish capital market in general.

Under the pressure of the lowering shares of WIG20 banks, he scored a decrease by 4.62% and went back to level 2,880.55 points. mWIG40 – also with a rich representation of banks in the composition – scored a decrease by 2.84%. Less lavish SWIG80 gave 0.54%. All this took place at very high turnover, which was counted on the main market at nearly PLN 3.9 billion.

– All this means that foreign investors, thanks to which banks have previously grown, realize profits. The question is how deep this profit implementation will be. Banks were at historical maxim. Looking in the long run, the WIG Banks index increased from approx. 12 thousand. points at the beginning of this year, at nearly 20,000 points Recently. At the moment, the decreases withdrew the index by about 1/4, it can be said that for now it is a moderate discount – told PAP Biznes Sobiesław Kozłowski, director of the Noble Securities Analysis and Consulting Department.

But not only banks were cheaper. Dino Polska shares were overestimated by 7.3% after the retailer disappointed the results for the second quarter. The management forecasts of the Management Board also look disturbing, which expects the increase in LFL sales close to food price inflation. This may be a considerable disappointment for those investors who wanted to earn on an increase in consumption in Poland announced by economists.

– After seven very strong months, we enter a more variable period. August, September, October is a season of correction. Added to this are the decisions of the rulers who look at the needs of the state budget. We had a signal about increasing excise duty to alcohol, perhaps to cigarettes, and now an increase in tax for banks. There were also statements about the taxation of developers. Perhaps the budget environment and the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2027 make it politicians are easier to introduce new taxes than to limit expenses – commented Sobiesław Kozłowski from Noble Securities.

At the same time, it is worth noting that several companies from WIG 20 relied on Friday's discount. Kęty's actions increased by 2.1% and during the session were the most expensive in history. The qualities of Żabka and PGE gained about 1.7%, and budimex ratings went up by 1.2%.

The disadvantage of the WSE is also influenced by the distanced perspective of the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The Russian side requests are absolutely unacceptable to Ukraine and the West. Even US President Donald Trump seems to lose patience with the Kremlin ruler. And this is a vision of reducing a risk bonus for the region of Central Europe since the beginning of the year has been driving increases on the WSE. Hence, Ukrainian companies have hit strongly: KS Agro, Agroton and Coal Energy's quotations fell 5-8%. The WIG-Ukraine index scored a 3.3%decrease.

In this context, it is worth looking at the wider statistics of the Friday session, during which investors sold out not only banks or retailers shares. About 60% of the value ended on the wide market under the line, and only every fourth gained in the price. A list of papers that set at least 52-week minimum of quotations has also extended (although it is still not overly long).

It is also worth recalling that on Thursday WIG and MWIG40 they were at historical maxima – it was 112.002.76 points, respectively. and 8,193.55 points In turn, SWIG80 ended the Thursday session at the level of 29,620.09 points, which is a record level, counting at closing prices.

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