Russian-Chinese economic ties are weakening. One word is overwhelmed: snow
Russia's commercial boom with China loses impetus, and a high -ranking official in Moscow warns that the country's markets are already saturated with some Chinese goods. – This year, we record a certain decrease in commercial exchange – said the Minister of Industry and Trade of Russia Anton Alichanow this week during the Economic Forum.
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– We also notice a gradual saturation of the market with Chinese products in some segments, as well as internal economic processes in both Russia and China – added Alichanov.
As he said Sanctions and variability on raw materials markets also affect freight flows.
From records to slowdown
Trade exchange between the two countries increased rapidly after Russia's full -glass invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when China filled the gap of Western brands, and Moscow redirected energy exports to the east.
Turning in Russian-Chinese trade increased by 29 percent. In 2022, IO 26 percent in 2023, reaching a record $ 245 billion. In 2024, however, last year, the increase was only 2 percent, and In the first seven months of 2025, trade fell by about 8 percent. year to year, up to USD 125.8 billion
Alchanov warned that a rapid growth from previous years would not return. “A more moderate exchange rate should be expected within the average date than before,” he said.
Chinese companies dominated Russian consumer markets, especially the car market, where they quickly took over most of the sale of new cars after the withdrawal of Western companies.
However, the import wave also caused anxiety in Moscow. This year, the Kremlin raised duties on Chinese cars – A step reflecting protective actions taken in the USA and Europe towards Chinese production surpluses.
This movement has already slowed down the flow: exporting all Chinese goods to Russia dropped by 8.4 percent. In the first half of 2025
Alchanow suggested that future cooperation should focus on the import of consumer goods to a lesser extent, and more on industrial investments.
“I think that in the long run the most successful will be those initiatives that assume investments in joint production, technology transfer and implementation of modern solutions,” he said.
The energy line of Russia's life is weakening
However, not only consumer trade is under pressure – Energy exports from Russia to China also weakened Due to lower global oil prices and exacerbation of the US sanctions against tankers transporting Russian oil.
This slowdown is spreading to a wider economy: GDP in the second quarter increased by only 1.1 percent. – compared to 1.4 percent In the first quarter and much less than 4 percent a year earlier.
“The falling demand of China to Russian raw materials – especially on oil – increased fiscal pressure on Moscow through the erosion of the tax base related to the export of energy, which is a key pillar of federal income” – wrote Maciej Kalwasiński last week, a senior analyst at the China team of the Eastern Studies Center in Poland.
He added that A general decrease in trade exerts a “tangible negative impact” on the Russian economy.
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“This additionally burdens Russia to maintain war expenditure, especially since the pace of Russia's economic growth from the beginning of 2025 has slowed violently,” wrote Kalwasiński.
The above text is a translation with American Business Insider edition
