The agricultural market is in a complex period, because the prices for coffee and cocoa grow against the background of the limited supply and geopolitical uncertainties, the soybeans feel the pressure of the changes in the global supply flows, while the sugar maintains a more moderate medium and long term.
They increase prices for coffee and cocoa. Photo archive
Commercial tensions, logistics problems, adverse weather conditions and speculation change the seasonal pattern, demonstrating that economic, policies and techniques shape the current perspectives. However, the growth of quotations in the last days, which could indicate stabilization in the next period, XTB analysts shows.
The evolution of these markets shows that prices are increasingly affected by unexpected, logistical and global factors, the analysis shows. According to her, coffee is facing high volatility fed by American tariffs and production variations.
Prices for cocoa grains remain at high levels against the backdrop of Western Africa. Although sugar is more stable, it remains vulnerable to rapid changes in supply and demand. As for soy, the market attention focuses on China's purchase decisions, which can influence the direction of prices.
Coffee
In Brazil, the coffee harvest is completed in a proportion of 90%, above the average of 84%. For season 2025/26, the production is estimated at 63.9 million bags, down 2.1% compared to the previous year. Instead, USDA estimates an increase in production worldwide, supported by Asia and Africa recovery.
Politically, Trump threatens that he will apply 50% rates to Brazilian coffee, linking this decision to investigations on the alleged involvement of former president Jair Bolsonaro in attempts to undermine the Brazil elections. These tensions, combined with the perspectives of harvests, put pressure on world prices.
Technical indicators reveal volatility and a lack of agreement between investors. Despite the seasonal character of the crops, the current prices are dominated by the disruption of the supply and the commercial policy, the XTB analysts emphasize.
Cocoa
Cocoa beans registered an increase of 5.69% in a single day and 8.7% in a month, reaching $ 9,010.72 per ton. This increase is determined by the crisis of the offer, caused by the decrease of production in the ivory and Ghana coast, by diseases and extreme weather conditions. From a technical point of view, the prices remain solid, despite the over-purchase signals. In this case, the seasonality is of reduced importance, compared to the major shocks of the offer and the high demand.
Cocoa (Cocoa) futures contracts on ICE have recently increased by over 7%, against the background of extreme weather conditions in Africa, combined with supply concerns, which have triggered a significant wave of shorts coverage reactions, forcing investors who have departed prices to liquidate their positions.
Important players of the sector like Lindt and Barry Callebaut have reduced their sales forecasts due to high cocoa prices and lower demand.
Manufacturers anticipate a drop in cocoa prices and sell their stocks to protect themselves, while speculators bet on growth and increase their purchase positions. The confrontation between the two camps puts pressure on the sellers and feeds the recent price increase, explains XTB, an investment company on international scholarships.
Sugar
Sugar has registered a modest growth, being quoted at $ 16.35 with daily and monthly variations below 1% and an annual decrease of over 10%. Despite the large volume of contracts, the strong production in Brazil and India exerts a downward pressure on prices. From a technical point of view, the prices are kept below the mobile media, which suggests the possibility of a correction to $ 16. Although the harvest season in Brazil usually has a major impact, the evolution is currently determined by global factors and the feeling of the market.
Soybeans
China has not yet registered any soybean delivery from the new US Harvest for the 2025/26 season, this being the slowest beginning in the last 20 years. Chinese soy acquisitions in the US have been non -existent in recent months, a situation related to high rates, their uncertainty, but also to the availability of alternatives in Brazil. Although purchases are usually low during this period, they are not non -existent. The last time the US farmers have been waiting so much for soy orders in the new harvest was in 1999.
The prices initially reacted with an increase in Donald Trump's comments on quadruping of soybeans by China, but decreases were observed at the beginning of the next day. However, the losses were neutralized by the publication of the Wasde report, which showed final stocks and significantly smaller production.
Although prices can fluctuate at this time, the prospects of an excess of world offer can cause prices to the crucial support level of $ 8.50 per Bushel. Before reaching this level, however, prices should face an important support at $ 9.50, a level that has been support since August last year, XTB shows.
