Marcin Wyrwał: What does Donald Trump really want? Has one obsession
Attempts to interpret the words of President Trump are reminiscent of the former attempts to interpret the words of President Wałęsa – you have never been sure whether they are part of a thoughtful strategy or an expression caused by a moment of emotion. It used to cause a lot of trouble to the inhabitants of the Central European country on their achievements. Today, the whole world has a problem, because it is about the leader of the greatest power who faces the problem of solving the bloodiest conflict of modern times.
During one day of meetings in Washington, Trump declared that “success is completely achievable” to say that “during the week or two we will see if we could solve it or not and this terrible conflict will last.” To this can be added to its earlier assurances about the end of the war within 24 hours.
Similar chaos can be observed in his relation to all parties to the conflict.
At one moment, Putin threatened Putin to “the best weapon” to Ukraine to develop a red carpet in Alaska a few weeks later (honestly you have to admit that there were more positive gestures towards the Moscow dictator).
In relations with Zelanski, the American president throws between the famous brawl in the oval office of February and rug up the Ukrainian with the words: “You do not have cards!”, Through a friendly conversation in the Basilica of Saint Peter in April, to the current announcements of providing Ukraine “protection similar to Article 5.” The alliance state will be treated as an attack on all countries.
No less confusion introduces Trump to relations with the leaders of European countries. Since their festival at the February Safety Conference in Munich by his representative JD Vance after it seems rational attempts to solve the conflict jointly on Monday in Washington.
Interesting Angel of Peace
What does Trump really want? One thing is certain: he wants the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war. There are many indications that this desire is not without personal benefits. For many months, the so -called Well -informed sources report that the obsession of the American president is to receive a Nobel Peace Prize. This one can only give him the end of the war in Ukraine.
In the spring, when he began the presidency and everything seemed simple, he could afford to give away times to the right and left. After many months, threats, requests and efforts Trump begins to understand that the Russian-Ukrainian war is not one that can be solved during the day. He admitted it – finally! – After a Monday conversation with President Zelnski in the White House: “I thought that this conflict would be one of the easier to solve, but it turned out to be one of the most difficult and very complicated.”
The fact that Trump (probably!) Understands the extremely complicated nature of this conflict does not mean that he stopped pressing on the resolution as soon as possible. One of the reasons for such a strong pressure on the speed of action may be the upcoming October date for awarding the Nobel Peace Prize. Another – just ego Trump, which according to many is so great that they should be transported in a separate Air Force One.
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And this, unfortunately, means that we are waiting for the next months of chaotic pressure on all interested parties.
The meeting in Alaska showed that Putin is not interested in the immediate end of the war. Talks in Washington showed that Trump did not push the matters forward. President Zełnski smuggled a lot between the lines, who, among the praise for the enlightened leadership of Trump (the last months taught Zelanski how to speak with Trump Io Trump) smuggled information about subsequent bilateral and three -sided meetings, which are to push peace conversations.
Ukraine can bend
So you can expect that in the coming weeks and months Trump will try to push something that only by name will resemble “peace”.
Under the great pressure of Americans, and perhaps also some European countries, Kiev may bend, because at this point Ukraine is dramatically weakened by war, also as a result of a drastic limitation of American help. A few days before Trump's conversations with Putin in Alaska, the Russians managed to break through the Ukrainian lines for several kilometers deep into the Ukrainian territory in the key area for the supply of the front of the Pokrowsk-Frameratorsk road. There are many indications that the Ukrainians managed to master the situation (although the situation is not entirely clear today), but this break did not come from nowhere. The Ukrainian army suffers from deficiencies – both people and equipment.
Fatigue and war trauma are also imprinted on society. Night on the night of Ukrainian cities falls rockets and drones-kkkadze. Only five civilians died from them preceding the conversation in Washington in Kharkov, and three of them.
A recipe for a bloody continuation
The problem is that the conflict ended with ad hoc or in the conditions of gross injustice for one of the parties inevitably lead to subsequent bloodshed.
The Versailles Treaty ending World War II was a ready recipe for the next war, which took place in 1939. The Paris Agreement and the withdrawal of the Americans from Vietnam in 1973 led to the next fights ended with the unification of the country by force. Finished with a truce in 1988, the Iraqi-Iranian war caused further tensions in the region, and one of its effects was the conflict in the Persian Gulf.
An ill -considered and rapidly built truce between Russia and Ukraine on the extremely unfavorable conditions for Kiev (read: the loss of all territories occupied by Russia, and therefore almost 20 percent of the territory of the country) will give motives to continue the war to both parties.
Caused by the sense of humiliation and injustice, the Ukrainians will want to regain even a part of their lands and avenge their loved ones, although they will not be able to rebuild themselves for a long time in a position in which they could even nod with his finger in this direction.
In a significant situation of continuing to continue conquests will be encouraged by Moscow's concessions to her, whose war economy is already accelerated, and the post -production of the equipment necessary to reach the Bug line will be a matter of at most a few years, if not faster. Concessions to aggressors only encourage them to further aggression. In this sense, Trump's ad hoc truce will be a recipe for a bloody continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
