Financial analysts expect the lion to emphasize their depreciation to the euro, and inflation to increase in the next 12 months

The national currency is expected to continue to depreciate up to 5.1015 lei for one euro in the next 6 months and up to 5.1716 lei for one euro in the next 12 months, the survey for July carried out by CFA Romania shows, the association that brings together financial-banking analysts. The inflation rate is also estimated to increase over the previous month's estimates.

“Given the confirmation of Romania's rating and establishing the fiscal package, the anticipation component has increased. As the state of the economy continues to worsen, the current component continued its decrease. But, then, the level of the indicator and both components indicate recession conditions,” said Adrian Codîrlașu, CFA Romania.

After the strong decrease registered in June, the macroeconomic trust indicator of the CFA Romania Association increased by 5.0 points, to 34.9 points. Its two components had divergent developments. Thus, the component of anticipations increased by 8.6 points, to the value of 33.6, while the component of current conditions continued its decrease, by 2.2 points, to the value of 37.5-reflecting the worsening of the current conditions.

Inflation and course Leo euro, growing estimates

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12 -month horizon (August 2026) increased compared to the value registered in the previous month and reached the level of 6.46%, while over 56% of the participants anticipate the increase of the inflation rate in the next 12 months. At the time of the survey, the inflation rate is at 5.66%.

Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, about 94% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months, with no opinion regarding a possible appreciation. Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the 6 -month horizon is 5,1015 lei for one euro, while for the 12 -month horizon, the average value of the EUR/RON rate is 5.1716 lei for one euro.

Price to real estate will stagnate

Regarding the evolution of prices of residential properties in cities, 69% of participants, anticipate a stagnation in the next 12 months, while 31% anticipate a decrease. Also 69% of participants believe that current prices are over-evaluated, and 31% are correctly evaluated.

The larger budget deficit and lower economic growth for the end of 2025

The deficit of the state budget forecast for 2025 increased slightly compared to the previous exercise, at the average value of the anticipations of 7.6% of GDP.

The anticipations of economic growth for the year 2025 are located, in a slight decrease compared to the previous exercise, at the average value of 0.8%, there are also opinions among the participants regarding a possible entry into the Romanian economy.

The public debt calculated as a percentage in GDP is anticipated to increase to 59% in the next 12 months.

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