On Wednesday, August 13, the Central Statistical Office at 10.00 will publish the first respect of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2025. The average forecast of economists assumes that dynamics accelerated to 3.4 percent. year on year with 3.2 percent noted in the first quarter. We will know full GDP data together with the structure on September 1.
Velobank economists wrote that they forecast the acceleration of the annual GDP dynamics in the second quarter of up to 3.5 percent, driven mainly by private consumption and the revival of the investment. “However, growth will be disturbed by the negative net export contribution, resulting from the weakening of foreign demand and increased imports,” they added.
Analysts of ING Bank Śląski assume that the annual economic growth rate increased to 3.5 percent, and service industries remained the main driving force. “Activity in the processing sector remained muffled, and construction recorded a decrease. Increase in retail sales by nearly 6 % year -on -year in the last quarter suggests that The annual growth rate of consumption was clearly higher than in the first quarter. In turn, the increase in investment probably slowed down a bit And he was still mainly powered by public sector expenses, “they wrote.
“Our expectations (3.5 percent year -on -year growth – ed.) Remain consistent with monthly data on economic activity. While in June data on industrial production and retail sales disappointed, they still have cumulative results for the second quarter are better than a year ago” – pointed out experts of Citi Handlowy.
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Own study based on the CSO data
“One of the factors limiting the growth rate in the past quarter will in our opinion will be poor export. In June we expect its dynamics around 0 percent year -on -year, with more than 3 % of imports, which will bring the deficit of the balance of current rotation to about -1.2 percent of GDP. Strong internal demand will act towards its maintenance or further deepening in the following months,” In the announcement of the Santander Bank Polska Economists, who assume that in the second quarter of GDP grew by 3.3 percent. year on year.
In 2025, the Polish gross domestic product may grow by 3.4-3.5 percent.
“Because we are slightly less optimistic regarding GDP growth in the second quarter than the market, the reading at our forecast level should strengthen the faith of the market in a reduction in interest rates in September. The EUR/PLN exchange rate should therefore remain in the range of 4.25-4.27 with a tendency to light weakening. Lower than a consensus GDP reading may conducive to light correction. Especially at a short end ” – they added.
They expect investments to gain more dynamics in the following quarters, and the GDP growth rate will gradually improve and reach 3.5 percent. Throughout 2025, which would mean acceleration with 2.9 percent. recorded in 2024 and only 0.3 percent In 2023, the International Monetary Fund in recently updated forecasts assumes that in 2025 Poland's economic growth will be 3.2 percent. Let us remind you that in the update of many years of macroeconomic assumptions adopted in mid-July, the government assumed that GDP in 2025 will grow 3.4 percent
