As analyzed by Reuters, the difference shows the growing tension in the market for physical supplies of raw materials.
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In a situation of shortage what becomes crucial is not how much oil will cost in a few months, but how much you have to pay for supplies “here and now”.
The conflict in the Middle East is limiting the global supply of oil
The direct cause of the crisis is the war involving Iran and the actions that led to the virtual closing of the Strait of Hormuz – one of the most important transport routes for oil and gas.
Up to 12 million barrels per day disappeared from the market, which corresponds to approximately 12%. world supply. As a result Brent contract prices increased to $119.5. per barrel – the highest level since 2022, although still below the record of 2008.
Europe and Asia are fighting for supplies
Disruptions in supplies from the Middle East forced refineries in Europe and Asia to look for alternative sources of raw material. This, in turn, caused a sharp increase in the price of oil from other regions, especially the North Sea and Africa.
One of the most spectacular examples is Forties species from the North Sea, the price of which has already exceeded 2008 levels, reaching over USD 146. per barrel. In practice, this means a historical maximum for this type of oil.
Experts indicate that the main factor driving prices is the fear of shortage. In a situation of real shortage of raw materials, market participants focus on immediate deliveries, not on future contracts.
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Threat to tourism. The price of aviation fuel is breaking records
The increase in oil prices immediately translates into the fuel market. In Europe, jet fuel prices are around $226. per barrel, approaching historical records.
Diesel oil also remains very expensive – its price exceeds $200. per barrel, although it still did not reach the 2022 highs.
